Scout report
Southern Miss 2026 outlook
Southern Miss are not currently priced in the title market, but here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Outlook
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.-19.1#127
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.-8.6#98
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1275
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.140.7#105
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.603
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.17%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.11
#115 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
40%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.32
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.05
#134 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
42%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
17%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
401.8
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+14
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsSep 5, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (110)
1DB2RB3DB5QB8CB9DL11WR12DB13LB14DB18QB18S19WR19CB20DB25RB26RB33LB42LB46LS47DB52DL96PKRB0WR1WR2LB3WR5DL6LB7WR7DL8WR9WR13WR14RB15QB15DL16QB16DB17DL21RB21DB22RB22DB23WR23DB24DB25DB26DB27RB27S28DB29CB30LS31DL35LB37S38WR39DB41DL48LS49LB50OL51LB53OL54OL55OL57DL58OL62OL64OL68OL70OL71OL72OL73OL74OL75OL76OL77OL79OL80WR81TE82TE83WR84TE85TE86WR87TE88TE88DL89TE90DL92DL93DL94DL95DL97DL98DL99DLLBIOLDLTEPEDGEOTSWR
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are Southern Miss's playoff odds in 2026?
Southern Miss make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 0% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Sun Belt in 1.5%, and win the national title in 0%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Southern Miss win in 2026?
The simulation projects Southern Miss at 4 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
How good are Southern Miss by the numbers?
In 2026 SP+, Southern Miss rank #127 overall (offense #115, defense #134).
Where can I trade Southern Miss markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.
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