Redshirt
Scout report

Texas Tech 2026 outlook

The market gives Texas Tech a 1% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%15%30%45%60%Jan 22Mar 8Apr 29Jun 5Jul 12Aug 18Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.18.5#13
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.21.5#6
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.2056
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.201.5#48
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.757
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.59%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.19
#12 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
44%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.31
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.23
#16 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
32%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
23%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
461.6
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+14
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsAbilene ChristianSep 5, 2026Not rated
W2@Oregon StateSep 12, 202687%Matchup
W3vsHoustonSep 19, 202673%Matchup
W4vsSam HoustonSep 26, 202699%Matchup
W5@ColoradoOct 3, 202685%Matchup
W7vsArizona StateOct 17, 202683%Matchup
W8@CincinnatiOct 24, 202669%Matchup
W9vsArizonaOct 31, 202675%Matchup
W10vsWest VirginiaNov 7, 202685%Matchup
W11@Oklahoma StateNov 14, 202667%Matchup
W12@BaylorNov 21, 202671%Matchup
W13vsTCUNov 27, 202672%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Brendan Sorsby
2786 yds, 26 TD
Rushing
Cameron Dickey
1138 yds, 14 TD
Receiving
Kenny Johnson
47 rec, 658 yds
Tackles
Ben Roberts
88 tot, 0 sk
Full roster (102)
1Micah HudsonWR1Julien LaventureDL2Kenny JohnsonWR3Coy EakinWR3Peyton MorganS4Davin MartinCB5Oliver Miles IIIS6John CurryLB7Terrance Carter Jr.TE7Brenden JordanS8Cameron DickeyRB8Jamond MathisLB9Donte Lee Jr.WR9Corey Platt Jr.LB10Lloyd Jones IIIQB10A.J. Holmes Jr.DL11Malcolm SimmonsWR12Tarrion GrantCB13Ben RobertsLB14Bryson JonesWR14Brice PollockCB15Will HammondQB15Austin RomaineLB16Holden PhillipsQB16Ashton HamptonCB17Leyton StoneWR18Kirk FrancisQB19Michael DeverWR20Adam TrickLB21Tristian GentryWR24Malik EsquerraS27Amier BoydCB33Ansel NedoreLB35Michael Henderson IIIRB35Adam HillLB37Ian HersheyP40Wesley SmithLB45Brock GolwasLB48Stone HarringtonPK49Will KarollP51Jayden CofieldDL70Jacob PontonOL74Daniel SillOL85Jett CarpenterTE92Bryce ButlerDL97Charles Anderson Jr.LB98Mateen IbirogbaDL99Jojo JohnsonLBBrendan SorsbyQBTrey WhiteLB0Quinten JoynerRB0Mikal Harrison-PilotS4Thomas CastellanosQB5Matt LudwigTE6Jalen JonesWR12Stephen CannonQB13Chase CampbellWR17Noah LewisCB18S'Vioarean MartinCB21Miquel Dingle Jr.S22Marcus Ramon-EdwardsS23Maddox QuillerS26Aaron BradshawS28Ashton RowdenRB28Braylan McDonaldS28Jordan RogersS29Luke HamiltonCB30Jamarn Grant IIS31Cord NolanLB32LaDamion GuytonLB33Loic TshibanguRB34Kaegan AshLB36Demarcus MarksLB39Jacob HandPK43Chris LemonsLB50Patrick McMathOL51Felix OjoOL52Cash ClevelandOL53Holton HendrixOL54Jordan ChurchOL56Jerald MaysOL56Amarie FlemingLB61Connor CartyOL66Jackson HildebrandOL68Ren BrownOL71Bryce GilmoreOL73Danilo GuberinichOL75Garin MaleyOL76Jacob CrowOL77Elias GillenOL78Ellis DavisOL79Howard SampsonOL80Kai PowellWR83Jack EsparzaTE84Imari JehielWR86Sean RobinsonLB88Quintaelyn JoynerWR89Jason LlewellynTE90Ayden JohnsonDL91Krush JohnsonDL93Dylan SingletonDL95Christian BruceLB
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins27%
11+ wins50%
10+ wins72%
9+ wins86%
8+ wins93%
7+ wins93%
6+ wins95%
5+ wins95%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Texas Tech win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Texas Tech's playoff odds in 2026?

Texas Tech make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 41.8% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big 12 in 24.7%, and win the national title in 2.8%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Texas Tech win in 2026?

The simulation projects Texas Tech at 9.4 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Texas Tech's national title odds?

Texas Tech have a 1% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Polymarket.

How good are Texas Tech by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Texas Tech rank #13 overall (offense #12, defense #16).

Where can I trade Texas Tech markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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