Redshirt
Scout report

Pittsburgh 2026 outlook

The market gives Pittsburgh a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%3%5%8%10%Jan 28May 27Aug 8Aug 14Aug 31Sep 10Sep 13

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.10.4#37
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.7.7#39
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1614
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.199.3#51
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.681
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.59%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.09
#40 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
40%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.33
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.04
#34 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
36%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
19%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
391.2
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-2
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsMiami (OH)Sep 5, 202687%Matchup
W2vsUCFSep 12, 202667%Matchup
W3vsSyracuseSep 17, 202678%Matchup
W4vsBucknellSep 26, 2026Not rated
W5@Virginia TechOct 2, 202639%Matchup
W6vsNorth CarolinaOct 10, 202669%Matchup
W7@Boston CollegeOct 17, 202678%Matchup
W8@MiamiOct 24, 202618%Matchup
W9vsGeorgia TechOct 31, 202669%Matchup
W11vsFlorida StateNov 14, 202667%Matchup
W12@LouisvilleNov 21, 202637%Matchup
W13@CaliforniaNov 28, 202667%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Mason Heintschel
2357 yds, 16 TD
Rushing
La'Vell Wright
471 yds, 10 TD
Receiving
Cataurus Hicks
24 rec, 422 yds
Tackles
Braylan Lovelace
79 tot, 1 sk
Full roster (103)
0Braylan LovelaceLB2Tony KinslerWR2Isaiah NealDL3Cataurus HicksWR3Shawn Lee Jr.DB4Rashan MurrayDB5Justin CookRB5Zach CrothersDL6Mason HeintschelQB6Raion StraderDB8Jaeden MooreDL10Censere LeeWR10Alex Sanford Jr.LB11Nick JamesDL12Cruce BrookinsDB14Josh GuerrierDB15Holden GerinerQB16Eliyt NairneDL17Elijah LaggTE21Shadarian HarrisonDB22Zion FergusonDB24Cameron LindseyLB26Allen BryantDB37Davin BrewtonLB38Emmanuel TaylorLB44Jimmy ScottDL52Abe IbrahimLB55Sean FitzSimmonsDL56Keylen DavisOL71Ryan CarrettaOL84Cam SappWR86Carson KentTE90Trevor SommersDLJeremiah WarrenDLLa'Vell WrightRBDeMarco WardLB7Malik KnightWR8Angelo RendaQB12Beau JacksonQB14Benny HaselrigWR15Tony ForneyDB16Corey DaileyQB18Max HuntTE19Davin FriedmanQB19Jayden BonsuLB20Synkwan SmithRB20Josh PittmanDL22Bryan HamiltonWR23Jake SassicWR23Kanye ThompsonDB24Tyreek RobinsonWR25Kentrail McRae Jr.DB26Damon Ferguson Jr.RB27Jaylin BrownRB27Nigel MaynardDB29Da'Ron BarksdaleDB30Jack LesniewiczWR32Truitt BrownTE32Jeremiah MarcelinLB34Ethan ShineRB34Marcus JenningsLB35Zaky RobertsRB35JuJu AndersonDL39D'Angelo StockerDB40Amah AgwuWR40Ty MillhimesDL41Isaac PattersonDB43Valdez StuvaintsDB44Adam HowanitzTE47Jaxson MarkDB48Desmond JohnsonLB48Antonio ChadhaPK49Jordan FieldsOL50Shep TurkOL50Denim CookDL51Jiavani CooleyOL53Kendall StanleyOL53Charlie DonehueDL54Justin ThompsonLB57Alex RudolphLS58Mason LindsayOL58Reston LehmanDL59Justin SchmidtLS60Akram ElnagmiOL61Sean FranklinOL63Ty BancoOL64Josh NindlOL66Keith GouveiaOL66Ben KauffmanDL68Torian ChesterOL70Ryan BaerOL72Isaiah MontgomeryOL74Netinho OlivieriOL76Lincoln HokeDL77John CurranOL77Dylan PitzerDL78Nick HowardOL81Rodney DunbarWR87Demetrice McCrayWR91Sam HunsakerPK92Kaemon TijerinaP94Carter GenchiPK98Gabe RussoP
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
11+ wins17%
10+ wins28%
9+ wins48%
8+ wins70%
7+ wins82%
6+ wins95%
5+ wins92%
4+ wins94%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Pittsburgh win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Pittsburgh's playoff odds in 2026?

Pittsburgh make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 11.7% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the ACC in 6%, and win the national title in 0.5%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Pittsburgh win in 2026?

The simulation projects Pittsburgh at 8.2 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Pittsburgh's national title odds?

Pittsburgh have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.

How good are Pittsburgh by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Pittsburgh rank #37 overall (offense #40, defense #34).

Where can I trade Pittsburgh markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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