Scout report
Old Dominion 2026 outlook
Old Dominion are not currently priced in the title market, but here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Outlook
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.-7#97
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.4.8#49
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1670
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.144.3#102
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.477
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.41%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.18
#115 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
45%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.26
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.07
#69 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
38%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
19%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
454.9
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+2
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsSep 5, 2026Not rated
W6@Oct 10, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (103)
1CB2QB2S3RB3S4DL5RB5CB6LB7S9DL10QB11WR13LB16S17WR18LB20CB22LB23CB24LB28RB40DL41LB44DL61LS86TE88TE90DL93PK94DL95DL96P97DL99PK0WR1WR4QB6RB7WR8WR8S9QB10LB11S12WR12S13TE14WR14S15CB17LB18QB19WR20RB21WR21CB25S26RB27CB28CB29S31DL32LB33CB34LB35LB36TE38LB39S42LB48PK51DL52LS56OL58OL60OL62OL64OL69OL70OL71OL72OL73OL74OL75OL76OL77OL78OL79OL81WR82WR84TE87WR88DL89TE91DL92DL93DL97PKRBOTIOL
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are Old Dominion's playoff odds in 2026?
Old Dominion make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 0.5% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Sun Belt in 7.7%, and win the national title in 0%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Old Dominion win in 2026?
The simulation projects Old Dominion at 6 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
How good are Old Dominion by the numbers?
In 2026 SP+, Old Dominion rank #97 overall (offense #115, defense #69).
Where can I trade Old Dominion markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.
Trade Old Dominion on Polymarket
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