Redshirt
Scout report

Virginia Tech 2026 outlook

The market gives Virginia Tech a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%3%5%8%10%Jan 23Apr 27Jun 6Jul 21Aug 26Sep 13Sep 22

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.12.4#28
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.-1.2#71
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1382
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.208.2#39
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.712
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.40%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.1
#22 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
42%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.24
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.23
#38 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
45%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
13%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
349.5
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-9
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsVMISep 5, 2026Not rated
W2vsOld DominionSep 12, 202691%Matchup
W3@MarylandSep 19, 202655%Matchup
W4@Boston CollegeSep 26, 202682%Matchup
W5vsPittsburghOct 2, 202661%Matchup
W6@CaliforniaOct 10, 202671%Matchup
W7vsGeorgia TechOct 17, 202674%Matchup
W8@ClemsonOct 24, 202657%Matchup
W10@SMUNov 7, 202645%Matchup
W11vsStanfordNov 14, 202691%Matchup
W12@MiamiNov 21, 202621%Matchup
W13vsVirginiaNov 28, 202660%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Ethan Grunkemeyer
1339 yds, 8 TD
Rushing
Bill Davis
763 yds, 6 TD
Receiving
Que'Sean Brown
63 rec, 842 yds
Tackles
Kaleb Spencer
67 tot, 0.5 sk
Full roster (109)
0Ayden GreeneWR0Quentin ReddishS1Tyson FlowersS2Takye HeathWR3Que'Sean BrownWR3Kaleb SpencerLB4Tyseer DenmarkWR5Marlion JacksonWR6Jordan BassS9Isaiah Brown-MurrayCB11DQ SmithS13Ja'Ricous HairstonTE13Kemari CopelandDL14Sheldon RobinsonS15Shamarius PeterkinWR15Brennan JohnsonS16Jeffrey Overton Jr.RB16Noah ChambersLB17Ethan GrunkemeyerQB17John LovePK23Tyler MasonRB25George BallanceLB26Antwone SantiagoLB28Knahlij HarrellS29Jahmari DeLoatchCB30Curtis Jones Jr.LB31Jason AbbeyDL32Bill DavisRB32Deric DandyDL35Jojo CrimCB36Brody JonesTE40Javion HilsonDL43Josh JonesCB44Brett ClatterbaughDL45Eric MensahDL51Samuel OkunlolaDL55Gerard Johnson IIIDL58Zeke ChinwikeDL82Benji GosnellTE85Luke ReynoldsTE87Harrison Saint GermainTE94Elhadj FallDL96Christian EplingLS99Emmett LawsDLNathan TottenPKeon WylieLBMylachi WilliamsDLJaquez WhiteCBKenny Woseley Jr.CB5Joshua ClarkeCB6Keylen AdamsWR7Sherrod CovilS11Davion BrownWR12Kelden RyanQB14Troy HuhnQB18A.J. BrandWR18Amauri PolydorCB19Mathieu LamahLB20Jeff Exinor Jr.WR20Cam Chadwick Jr.CB21Zaevion ClevelandCB22Bryce BakerQB24Tyrell Grant Jr.S26Messiah MickensRB27Marcellous Hawkins Jr.RB27Tyson HarleyDL28Drew HubeWR34Cortez HarrisDL35John BuetowRB36Randy AdirikaDL38John-Patrick OatesLB44Matt HendersonTE47Danny GarvinCB49Deed CapperLS51Elijah HaughawoutOL52Sherrod HendersonDL53Tommy RicardOL54Grant KarczewskiDL56Layth GhannamOL56Daniel JenningsDL57Lucas AustinOL58Roseby LubintusOL60Maddox CochraneOL61Justin BellOL62Kyle AltunerOL63Kamren JohnsonDL65Tyrell SimpsonOL66Montavious CunninghamOL70Logan HowlandOL71Gavin CrawfordOL74Marlen BrightOL75Benjamin EziukaOL76Aidan LynchOL77Brody MeadowsOL79Johnny GarrettOL80L.J. BookerWR88Pierce PetersohnTE88Christian EvansDL90Andrew HanchukDL92Aiden DaughertyPK93Cole ByrdPK95T-Ron Richardson Jr.DL97Luke JonesP98Will LovePK99Cole ReemsnyderTEChris TangeloSMichael Troutman IIIOLJustin TerryOLCam ChadwickCB
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
9+ wins53%
8+ wins68%
7+ wins79%
6+ wins88%
5+ wins91%
4+ wins95%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Virginia Tech win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Virginia Tech's playoff odds in 2026?

Virginia Tech make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 15.8% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the ACC in 8.1%, and win the national title in 0.7%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Virginia Tech win in 2026?

The simulation projects Virginia Tech at 8.3 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Virginia Tech's national title odds?

Virginia Tech have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.

How good are Virginia Tech by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Virginia Tech rank #28 overall (offense #22, defense #38).

Where can I trade Virginia Tech markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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