Scout report
Wisconsin 2026 outlook
Wisconsin are not currently priced in the title market, but here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Outlook
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.5.1#56
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.2.5#60
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1502
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.227.2#27
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.763
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.40%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.08
#90 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
37%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.2
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.12
#21 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
45%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
13%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
254.8
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-10
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W2vsSep 12, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (107)
0WR0LB1QB2WR2CB3RB3CB4WR4S5QB6RB7WR7LB8QB8LB12WR12LB13WR15RB15LB16S18QB19LB21S28LB29S30DL44LB51LB56LS76DL85TE87WR89TE91DL93DL97DLSCB1CB6CB9WR10QB11WR14WR14LB17TE17CB18CB19WR20RB20S21RB22WR23LB24WR25S26WR27S31CB32RB34LB37LB38RB39LB41FB42FB43LB45LB49TE50OL50LB51OL53OL53LS54OL55OL55LB58OL60OL64OL65OL70OL72OL73OL75OL76OL77OL78OL79OL81WR82TE84TE86TE90DL90P94PK95DL96DL97PK98LB98PCBRBOLOTDL
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
9+ wins2%
8+ wins26%
7+ wins46%
6+ wins64%
5+ wins79%
4+ wins91%
3+ wins94%
Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Wisconsin win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.
Frequently asked questions
What are Wisconsin's playoff odds in 2026?
Wisconsin make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 1.5% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big Ten in 0.7%, and win the national title in 0.1%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Wisconsin win in 2026?
The simulation projects Wisconsin at 6 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
How good are Wisconsin by the numbers?
In 2026 SP+, Wisconsin rank #56 overall (offense #90, defense #21).
Where can I trade Wisconsin markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.
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