Scout report

North Dakota State 2026 outlook

North Dakota State are not currently priced in the title market, but here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Outlook

SP+ pctile

Team profile

Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+

National ratings

CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season

SP+ overall10.6#35

Recruiting64.7#133

Efficiency profile

Per play · 2025

Turnover margin

What these metrics mean

SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.

Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.

Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.

2026 schedule

Bars show the model's projected win probability

W1vsJacksonville StateAug 29, 202684%Matchup

W1vsFordhamSep 5, 2026Not rated

W2@Air ForceSep 13, 202675%Matchup

W3@Sacramento StateSep 20, 202696%Matchup

W5vsWyomingOct 3, 202696%Matchup

W6@UNLVOct 10, 202676%Matchup

W7vsNevadaOct 17, 202691%Matchup

W8@New MexicoOct 25, 202658%Matchup

W9vsUTEPOct 31, 202698%Matchup

W11@Hawai'iNov 15, 202682%Matchup

W12vsNorthern IllinoisNov 21, 202698%Matchup

W13@San José StateNov 27, 202691%Matchup

Roster & leaders

2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders

Passing

Nathan Hayes

381 yds, 4 TD

Rushing

DJ Scott

502 yds, 6 TD

Receiving

Reis Kessel

15 rec, 335 yds

Full roster (101)

2Nathan HayesQB 5Myles MitchellRB 6Jaylin CrumbyS 7DJ ScottRB 10Trey DrakeQB 14Taylen EadyS 15Mekhi CollinsWR 17Isiah St. RomainWR 19John GoresWR 22Charles Ross IIIRB 28Cortez LeGrantRB 29Darius GivanceS 32Barry KpeenuRB 37Drew KleinPK 41Peder HaugoLB 55Oliver LuchtLB 81Reis KesselTE 83Cade OstermanWR 84Logan ConklinWR 0Preston BrownQB 0Victor IseleDE 2EJ DavisCB 3Jeremiah PattersonWR 3Gavin SellLB 4Nyeoti PunniRB 4Najee NelsonCB 9Gabriel CunninghamTE 9Kelton McCaslinDE 11Jordan McCantsWR 11Matthew StenbrotenDE 12Myles EllisWR 13Zander SmithQB 13Mikhale FordS 16Henry NelsonQB 16Marion MooreCB 19Will RosenmeyerCB 20Drake SchlosserWR 20Will SteilS 21Chris KielWR 22Hudson ArtzS 23Kye SchlichtingWR 23Kegan HuberCB 24Kobe RussellCB 25Godson Rufus-OkomhanruRB 25Ray James Jr.LB 26Evrett TaitS 27Joaquin JordanWR 27Landon MeierS 28Kendrick CarterCB 30Jaylen ArchibaldS 31Q BarnslaterCB 32Brayden DozierCB 33Walker BraatenS 34Jonathan HarveyRB 34Deron RussellCB 35Ryland SatterLB 38Ben ScheppLB 38Jayden OnuongaPK 39Aaron BickertonP 42Alex ElliottLB 43Cash DannerTE 44Luke KokatTE 44Carter ApplLB 45Gatlin EmpeyFB 48Blake SchiltzDE 48CJ AndersonLS 49Colten GundersonTE 50Damian DevineLB 51Caleb McGrathP 53Chase EvinkDT 55Kene AneneOL 56Allante BurleyDE 58Zach HellendrungDT 59James NellisG 60Thomas RobertsDT 61Gage SchmidtC 62Griffin EmpeyG 63Trey McPartlandOL 64Jason HunterDT 65Brody ClubbDT 66Jack LiwienskiG 67Earl BrownOL 68Coy OkesonG 72Nate SchnecklothG 75Josh MaginOT 76Ryan BabatzOT 77Austin SchultzOT 78Noah StommesOT 80Jacob KilzerWR 82SJ GreenWR 87Noah NelsonTE 88Isaac EllisonTE 89Tochi OkoroWR 90Truman GriffithDE 92Daniel DevineDE 93Anthony OkesDE 94Logan LarsonDT 96Abraham MyersTE 98Jack HansenDT 99Obald NiyonkuruDT Keith Williams Jr.LB

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

What are North Dakota State's playoff odds in 2026?

North Dakota State make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 37% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Mountain West in 43.8%, and win the national title in 0.6%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will North Dakota State win in 2026?

The simulation projects North Dakota State at 10.3 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

How good are North Dakota State by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, North Dakota State rank #35 overall (offense #49, defense #26).

Where can I trade North Dakota State markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

Trade North Dakota State on Polymarket

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