Scout report
Texas 2026 outlook
The market gives Texas a 9.6% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Aug 8.
Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.16.2#17
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.18.6#11
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1926
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.312.3#1
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.974
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.28%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.18
#30 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
41%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.37
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.1
#18 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
39%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
18%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
388.7
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+14
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsSep 5, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (103)
0RB1EDGE2RB3WR3LB4DB5DB6DB7WR8WR8DB9QB11RB14LB15TE15DL16QB17WR17DB18WR21RB23DB24DB26LB27DB28LB29DB31RB32LB33DL35WR37LB40EDGE44LB44PK45LB46EDGE47LS53DL71OL81TE90DL93DL95DL97DL4WR5RB6QB11DB13WR13DB14WR16LB18LB19QB21DB25QB25DB30LB31DB33RB35DB36DB39WR41DB42LS43LB43P45P46PK48TE48DB49PK50OL51OL52DL55DL56OL58OL62OL64OL68OL69OL70OL72OL73OL74OL75OL76OL77OL78OL79OL80EDGE82TE83TE86WR87TE88TE89WR94EDGEIOLDLIOL
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are Texas's playoff odds in 2026?
Texas make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 16.2% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the SEC in 5.4%, and win the national title in 1.1%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Texas win in 2026?
The simulation projects Texas at 7 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
What are Texas's national title odds?
Texas have a 9.6% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 11% on Polymarket.
How good are Texas by the numbers?
In 2025 SP+, Texas rank #17 overall (offense #30, defense #18).
Where can I trade Texas markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.