Redshirt
Scout report

Texas 2026 outlook

The market gives Texas a 12.3% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%14%28%41%55%Jan 22Mar 4Apr 15May 26Jul 6Aug 16Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.24.1#6
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.18.6#11
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1926
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.312.3#1
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.974
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.28%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.15
#8 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
41%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.36
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.02
#8 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
39%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
18%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
388.7
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+14
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsTexas StateSep 5, 202698%Matchup
W2vsOhio StateSep 12, 202642%Matchup
W3vsUTSASep 20, 202695%Matchup
W4@TennesseeSep 26, 202654%Matchup
W6vsOklahomaOct 10, 202665%Matchup
W7vsFloridaOct 17, 202670%Matchup
W8vsOle MissOct 24, 202675%Matchup
W9vsMississippi StateOct 31, 202681%Matchup
W10@MissouriNov 7, 202666%Matchup
W11@LSUNov 14, 202653%Matchup
W12vsArkansasNov 21, 202695%Matchup
W13@Texas A&MNov 28, 202658%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Arch Manning
3163 yds, 26 TD
Rushing
Raleek Brown
1141 yds, 4 TD
Receiving
Cam Coleman
57 rec, 725 yds
Tackles
Rasheem Biles
100 tot, 4.5 sk
Full roster (101)
0Raleek BrownRB1Colin SimmonsEDGE2Hollywood SmothersRB3Emmett Mosley VWR3Rasheem BilesLB4Jelani McDonaldDB5Bo MascoeDB6Kobe BlackDB7Kaliq LockettWR8Cam ColemanWR8Kade PhillipsDB9Karle Lacey Jr.QB11Michael Terry IIIRB14Brad SpenceLB15Michael MasunasTE15Justus TerryDL16Arch ManningQB17Daylan McCutcheonWR17Xavier FilsaimeDB18Sterling BerkhalterWR19MJ MorrisQB21Ryan NiblettRB23Jordon Johnson-RubellDB24Warren RobersonDB27Wardell MackDB28Justin CryerLB29Graceson LittletonDB31James SimonRB32Brady SarkisianLB33Myron CharlesDL35Rett AndersenWR37Jonathan CunninghamLB40Lance JacksonEDGE44Markus BoswellLB44Gianni SpeticPK45Darius SnowLB46Smith OrogboEDGE47Trey DubucLS53Isaiah ColemanDL71Melvin SianiOL81Nick TownsendTE90Josiah SharmaDL93Hero KanuDL95Ian GeffrardDL97Alex JanuaryDL0John Meredith IIIDB4Jermaine Bishop Jr.WR5Derrek CooperRB6Dia BellQB11Samari MatthewsDB13Kohen BrownWR13Zelus HicksDB14Chris StewartWR16Tyler AtkinsonLB18Kosi OkpalaLB21Hayward Howard Jr.DB25Luke DunhamQB25Toray DavisDB30Rocky CummingsLB31Yaheim RileyDB33Carson BergerRB35McCoy BruceDB36Nick HudsonDB39Evan EnderlinWR42Trott O'NealLS43Eric GarzaLB43Mac ChiumentoP45Mikey BukauskasP46Spencer BarnettPK48Bryce ChambersTE48Jackson DuffeyDB49Jake CollettPK50Laurence Seymore IIIOL51John Turntine IIIOL52James JohnsonDL54Cole HutsonOL55Elijah AliDL56Dylan SikorskiOL58Devin ColemanOL62Connor RobertsonOL64Robert SweeneyOL68Paris PattersonOL69Brooks Kieschnick Jr.OL70Kaden SchererOL72Nicolas RobertsonOL73Brandon BakerOL74Trevor GoosbyOL75Jaydon ChatmanOL76Jackson ChristianOL77Andre CojoeOL78Jordan ColemanOL79Jonte NewmanOL80Brinley TitaEDGE82Ridge BarkerTE83Spencer ShannonTE86Hudson PowellWR87Will RandleTE88Charlie JilekTE89Ty BoatrightWR94Jamarion CarltonEDGEZion WilliamsDL
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins14%
11+ wins35%
10+ wins59%
9+ wins84%
8+ wins89%
7+ wins93%
6+ wins95%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Texas win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Texas's playoff odds in 2026?

Texas make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 50.5% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the SEC in 14.9%, and win the national title in 5.6%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Texas win in 2026?

The simulation projects Texas at 8.7 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Texas's national title odds?

Texas have a 12.3% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 13% on Kalshi.

How good are Texas by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Texas rank #6 overall (offense #8, defense #8).

Where can I trade Texas markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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