Scout report
BYU 2026 outlook
The market gives BYU a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.15.9#18
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.15.3#17
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1750
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.197.2#55
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.649
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.38%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.22
#24 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
46%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.18
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.06
#22 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
39%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
16%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
400.3
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+8
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsSep 6, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (103)
0CB1CB2CB3WR3S4RB7TE10QB10DE11S12RB13WR13DE16LB17S18WR18LB19WR19P20CB21LB22WR22S28RB30RB32CB33LB41RB45DT47QB48DE54LB64OL82TE90DE94DT96DT97DELBCB0WR1WR2TE5WR7S15QB16QB23WR25RB25S26WR26CB27S28S29CB30DE31LB33WR34RB35S36S36P37S38RB39CB41DT42RB42DE43LB43LS44TE45TE47LS49LS50DT51OL52OL53OL54OL55LB57OL58OL58DT59OL59DE62OL63OL66OL67OL72OL73OL74OL75OL76OL80TE84WR87TE89WR93DT97PK99DT99PKOL
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are BYU's playoff odds in 2026?
BYU make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 21.8% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big 12 in 7.5%, and win the national title in 1.2%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will BYU win in 2026?
The simulation projects BYU at 8 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
What are BYU's national title odds?
BYU have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.
How good are BYU by the numbers?
In 2025 SP+, BYU rank #18 overall (offense #24, defense #22).
Where can I trade BYU markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.