Redshirt
Scout report

BYU 2026 outlook

The market gives BYU a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%3%5%8%10%Jan 23Apr 13Jun 26Aug 2Aug 22Sep 8Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.17.5#17
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.15.3#17
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1750
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.197.2#55
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.649
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.38%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.16
#16 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
46%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.17
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0
#17 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
39%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
16%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
400.3
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+8
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsUtah TechSep 6, 2026Not rated
W2vsArizonaSep 12, 202673%Matchup
W3@Colorado StateSep 19, 202691%Matchup
W5@TCUOct 3, 202659%Matchup
W6vsIowa StateOct 10, 202680%Matchup
W7vsNotre DameOct 17, 202634%Matchup
W8@UCFOct 24, 202672%Matchup
W9vsArizona StateOct 31, 202681%Matchup
W10@UtahNov 7, 202645%Matchup
W11vsBaylorNov 14, 202679%Matchup
W12@KansasNov 21, 202677%Matchup
W13vsCincinnatiNov 28, 202676%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Bear Bachmeier
3033 yds, 15 TD
Rushing
LJ Martin
1305 yds, 12 TD
Receiving
LJ Martin
36 rec, 255 yds
Tackles
Cade Uluave
97 tot, 3 sk
Full roster (103)
0Evan JohnsonCB1Therrian Alexander IIICB2Roger Saleapaga IITE2Jonathan KabeyaCB3Kyler KasperWR3Raider DamuniS4LJ MartinRB7Walker LyonsTE10Treyson BourguetQB10Orion Maile-KaufusiDE11Faletau SatualaS12Preston RexRB13Jojo PhillipsWR13Tausili AkanaDE16Isaiah GlaskerLB17Jarinn KalamaS18Reggie FrischknechtWR18Ace KaufusiLB19Tiger BachmeierWR19Fuller ShurtzP20Kevin DoeCB21Miles HallLB22Trey RobertsWR22Tommy PrassasS28Jovesa DamuniRB30Sione MoaRB32Cannon DeVriesCB33Maika KaufusiLB34Charlie MiskaRB41Lucky FinauRB45Viliami Po'uhaDT47Bear BachmeierQB48Bodie SchoonoverDE54Siale EseraLB64Kyle SfarciocOL82Noah MoeakiTE90Hunter CleggDE94Anisi PurcellDT96Justin KirklandDT97Kinilau FonohemaDECade UluaveLBJayven WilliamsCB0Tei NacuaWR1Legend GlaskerWR5Jaron PulaWR7Kennan PulaS15John SandersQB16Owen GeilmanQB23Terrance SaryonWR25Devaughn EkaRB25Lance ReynoldsS26Fisher IngersollWR26Jordyn CrissCB27Matthias LeachS28Crew ClarkS29Justice BrathwaiteCB30Braxton LindseyLB31Jake CliftonLB33Jared EsplinWR35Matthew MasonS36TJ JohnsonS36TJ JohnsonS36Cole ShulmanP37Joseph DouglasS38Logan PayneRB39Seth ShiggCB41Nehemiah KoloneDT42Micah BecksteadRB42Adney ReidDE43Owen BorgLB44Josh DavisTE45Keayen NeadTE47Berkley AlfreyLS49Rayden HeintzLS50Maverick McManusDT51Sonny MakasiniOL52Bott MulitaloOL53Strantz MangisiOL54Jake AlexanderOL55Blake LoweLB57Talitu'i PututauOL58Paki FinauOL59Siosiua Latu-FinauOL59Siosefa BrownDE62Jr SiaOL63Bruce MitchellOL66Brigham AlexanderOL67Trevor PayOL72Joe BrownOL73Caden McKeeOL74Trevin OstlerOL75Andrew GentryOL76Jeff LewisOL80Jacob NyeTE84Kila KeoneWR87Matthew FredrickTE88Ty SmithLS89Jett NelsonWR93Kelepi Latu-FinauDT97Matthias DunnPK99Ulavai FetuliDT99Brody LagaPKZak YamauchiOL
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins12%
11+ wins28%
10+ wins47%
9+ wins68%
8+ wins78%
7+ wins89%
6+ wins93%
5+ wins94%
4+ wins95%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade BYU win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are BYU's playoff odds in 2026?

BYU make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 32.6% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big 12 in 19.8%, and win the national title in 1.9%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will BYU win in 2026?

The simulation projects BYU at 8.6 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are BYU's national title odds?

BYU have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.

How good are BYU by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, BYU rank #17 overall (offense #16, defense #17).

Where can I trade BYU markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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