Scout report
Arkansas 2026 outlook
The market gives Arkansas a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.5.1#53
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.6.6#42
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1571
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.219.7#32
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.773
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.36%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.3
#16 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
49%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.33
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.25
#99 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
46%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
15%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
455.1
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-11
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsSep 5, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (109)
0RB0DL1WR1DB2QB2DB3WR3DB4DB5RB6WR6DB7QB7LB8WR8LB9WR9DL10LB11WR18DB21RB24DB27RB30PK32TE32DB42LB44LB47TE71OL83TE85TE88DL91DL92DL97DLDBWRDBDL4WR14QB14DB15DB16QB16DB17DB18WR19WR20DB21DB22RB22DB24RB25RB25LB26DB27DB28DL29DB30DL31DB33LB34P35TE37P39PK41DL41P43DL45LB50OL51LS52OL53OL54OL55OL55DL56OL59LS60OL61OL62OL63OL65OL66OL67OL70OL73OL74OL75OL78OL79OL80WR82WR84TE87WR88WR89TE90DL93DL95DL99DLWRDLOLOTCB
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are Arkansas's playoff odds in 2026?
Arkansas make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 1.3% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the SEC in 0.6%, and win the national title in 0.1%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Arkansas win in 2026?
The simulation projects Arkansas at 5 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
What are Arkansas's national title odds?
Arkansas have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.
How good are Arkansas by the numbers?
In 2025 SP+, Arkansas rank #53 overall (offense #16, defense #99).
Where can I trade Arkansas markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.