Redshirt
Scout report

Notre Dame 2026 outlook

The market gives Notre Dame a 10.7% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%13%25%38%50%Jan 22Mar 4Apr 17May 28Jul 8Aug 18Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.26.7#3
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.25.3#3
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.2243
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.270.2#12
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.912
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.37%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.27
#4 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
46%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.5
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.08
#6 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
36%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
18%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
459.5
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+13
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsWisconsinSep 6, 202690%Matchup
W2vsRiceSep 12, 2026100%Matchup
W3vsMichigan StateSep 19, 202695%Matchup
W4@PurdueSep 26, 202695%Matchup
W5@North CarolinaOct 3, 202688%Matchup
W6vsStanfordOct 10, 202699%Matchup
W7@BYUOct 17, 202666%Matchup
W9vsNavyOct 31, 202696%Matchup
W10vsMiamiNov 8, 202664%Matchup
W11vsBoston CollegeNov 14, 202698%Matchup
W12vsSMUNov 22, 202685%Matchup
W13@SyracuseNov 28, 202693%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
CJ Carr
2741 yds, 24 TD
Rushing
Nolan James Jr.
37 yds, 0 TD
Receiving
Jordan Faison
49 rec, 640 yds
Tackles
Drayk Bowen
67 tot, 3.5 sk
Full roster (100)
0Quincy PorterWR0Tionne GrayDL1Jaden GreathouseWR1Dallas GoldenCB2Nolan James Jr.RB2DJ McKinneyCB3Mylan GrahamWR3Jaylen SneedLB4Jaiden AusberryLB5Boubacar TraoreDL6Jordan FaisonWR6Christopher Burgess Jr.DL7Francis BrewuDL8Jerome Bettis Jr.WR8Adon ShulerS9Brauntae JohnsonS10Loghan ThomasDL11Keon KeeleyDL12Jayden SandersCB13CJ CarrQB14Micah GilbertWR15Leonard MooreCB16Ko'o KiaLB17Elijah BurressWR18Erik SchmidtP19Logan SaldateWR19Madden FaraimoLB22Ethan LongS27Kyngstonn Viliamu-AsaLB28Luke TalichS29Christian GrayCB33Matt JefferyWR34Drayk BowenLB35Teddy RezacLB42Cole MullinsDL43Kahanu KiaLB47Jason OnyeDL56Elijah HughesDL59Sean Sevillano Jr.DL64Joe OttingOL75Sullivan AbsherOL85Jack LarsenTE88Armel MukamDL91Gordy SulfstedDL4Bubba FrazierWR9Teddy JarrardQB10Noah GrubbsQB11Devin FitzgeraldWR12Blake HebertQB13Ayden PounceyCB14Ebenezer EwetadeDL15Brayden RobinsonWR16Dylan FaisonWR18Kaydon FinleyWR20Joey O'BrienS21Khary AdamsCB23Ja'Kobe ClapperLB24Ian PremerTE25Brandon LoganS26Javian OsborneRB26Chaz SmithCB31Xavier SouthallWR32Nick ReddishCB35Spencer PorathPK36Micah DrescherPK37Kurt SmithRB38Tommy PowlusLB39Jasper ScaifeP40Dominik HulakDL42Henry GarrityTE44Rodney DunhamDL49Andrew KrosLS50Sullivan GarvinOL51Ben NicholsOL52Devan HoustanOL54Anthonie KnappOL55Chris TerekOL55Tiki HolaDL56Charles JagusahOL57Cam HerronOL58Matty AugustineOL58Thomas Davis Jr.LB60Max AndersonOL60Davion DixonDL65Grayson McKeoghOL66Tyler MerrillOL67Gregory PatrickOL68Charlie ThomOL70Ashton CraigOL71Styles PrescodOL74Will BlackOL76Guerby LambertOL77Peter JonesOL78Owen StrebigOL84Preston FryzelTE87Cooper FlanaganTE88James FlaniganTE89Austin RatiganTE90Elijah GoldenDL94Joe ReiffDL
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins38%
11+ wins72%
10+ wins88%
9+ wins90%
8+ wins94%
7+ wins96%
6+ wins97%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Notre Dame win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Notre Dame's playoff odds in 2026?

Notre Dame make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 74.8% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Independent in 0%, and win the national title in 9.7%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Notre Dame win in 2026?

The simulation projects Notre Dame at 10.2 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Notre Dame's national title odds?

Notre Dame have a 10.7% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 12% on Kalshi.

How good are Notre Dame by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Notre Dame rank #3 overall (offense #4, defense #6).

Where can I trade Notre Dame markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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