Redshirt
Scout report

USC 2026 outlook

The market gives USC a 1.6% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%14%28%41%55%Jan 23Apr 8May 15Jun 18Jul 22Aug 25Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.21.6#8
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.18#13
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1871
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.257#14
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.848
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.37%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.3
#1 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
49%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.34
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.08
#34 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
45%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
16%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
465.2
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+2
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsSan José StateAug 29, 202699%Matchup
W1vsFresno StateSep 5, 202693%Matchup
W2vsLouisianaSep 13, 202697%Matchup
W3@RutgersSep 19, 202690%Matchup
W4vsOregonSep 26, 202649%Matchup
W5vsWashingtonOct 3, 202675%Matchup
W6@Penn StateOct 10, 202650%Matchup
W8@WisconsinOct 24, 202680%Matchup
W9vsOhio StateOct 31, 202636%Matchup
W11@IndianaNov 14, 202634%Matchup
W12vsMarylandNov 21, 202684%Matchup
W13@UCLANov 28, 202673%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Jayden Maiava
3711 yds, 24 TD
Rushing
King Miller
972 yds, 8 TD
Receiving
Terrell Anderson
39 rec, 629 yds
Tackles
Desman Stephens II
86 tot, 0 sk
Full roster (101)
1Kameryn CrawfordDE2Waymond JordanRB4Jahkeem StewartDT6Christian PierceS7Sam HuardQB7Alex GrahamCB8King MillerRB8Desman Stephens IILB9Terrell AndersonWR10Corey SimmsWR10Braylan ShelbyDE14Jayden MaiavaQB14Ta'Mere RobinsonLB16Tanook HinesWR16Prophet BrownCB17Deven BryantLB18Zuriah FisherDE23Kendarius ReddickS26Elijah NewbyLB27Chasen JohnsonCB30Marquis GallegosS37Trestin CastroCB38Isaiah RubinS40Shawn SehraCB41Cian McKelveyRB48Ryon SayeriP57Roman MarchettiLB84Tucker AshcraftTE88Floyd BoucardDT89Brendan ChoDT95Jadyn RamosDE97Jide AbasiriDT99Jamaal JarrettDTAlex VanSumerenDTJontez WilliamsCB1Ethan FeasterWR2Elbert Hill IVCB4Trent MosleyWR6Deshonne RedeauxRB17Kayden Dixon-WyattWR18Romero IsonWR19Mark BowmanTE19Brandon LockhartCB21Alex MedynQB21RJ SermonsCB22Shahn AlstonRB22Talanoa IliLB23Walter MatthewsTE24Shaun ScottLB28Carrington PierceCB29Will DohertyQB29Joshua Holland IICB30Kayne MillerRB31Madden RiordanS34Tyson ParkRB34Jayden CrowderCB35Lachlan CarriganP36Peyton DyerS36Rey SanchezP37Zachary NandlalP38Patrick O'BrienTE39Peter SciarrinoS39Nate HillenburgP41Ryan O'ConnellLB44Manoah LeiatoTE44Braeden JonesDT45Caden ChittendenPK46Nick De FinaLB46Dylan BlackLS47Austin EngroffLB48Derek DinizCB49Simote KatoangaDE50Taylor JohnsonLB51Vlad DyakonovOL53Luke BrownLS54Ethan BroughamDE56Kannon SmithOL58GianCarlo RufoLB60Kaylon MillerOL62Travis LeonardOL63Cash JacobsenOL64Ryan PauleyOL66Breck KolojayOL67Kilian O'ConnorOL70Aaron DunnOL71Keenyi PepeOL72Elijah PaigeOL73Tobias RaymondOL75Ratumana BulabalavuOL76John FifitaOL77Alani NoaOL78Chase DenizOL81Cameron SermonsWR83Fisher MeltonTE85Tron BakerWR86Luke DegnerWR87Josiah JeffersonTE89Griffin BrahmWR90Jake JohnsonDT92Sam SmithDE96Jordan AbarcaDT
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins12%
11+ wins13%
10+ wins33%
9+ wins53%
8+ wins75%
7+ wins85%
6+ wins94%
5+ wins95%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade USC win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are USC's playoff odds in 2026?

USC make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 41.3% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big Ten in 9.7%, and win the national title in 4%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will USC win in 2026?

The simulation projects USC at 8.6 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are USC's national title odds?

USC have a 1.6% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 2% on Polymarket.

How good are USC by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, USC rank #8 overall (offense #1, defense #34).

Where can I trade USC markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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