Redshirt
Scout report

SMU 2026 outlook

The market gives SMU a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%3%5%8%10%Jan 23May 18Jul 24Aug 18Aug 31Sep 13Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.12#29
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.12.5#23
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1852
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.220.9#31
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.767
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.50%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.19
#21 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
43%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.36
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.04
#41 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
40%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
19%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
417
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+9
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1@Florida StateSep 7, 202660%Matchup
W2vsUC DavisSep 12, 2026Not rated
W3@LouisvilleSep 19, 202641%Matchup
W4vsMissouri StateSep 27, 202697%Matchup
W5vsBoston CollegeOct 3, 202688%Matchup
W7vsVirginiaOct 17, 202659%Matchup
W8vsCaliforniaOct 24, 202680%Matchup
W9@SyracuseOct 31, 202672%Matchup
W10vsVirginia TechNov 7, 202655%Matchup
W11vsWake ForestNov 14, 202674%Matchup
W12@Notre DameNov 22, 202615%Matchup
W13@StanfordNov 28, 202685%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Kevin Jennings
3641 yds, 26 TD
Rushing
Kendrick Raphael
952 yds, 13 TD
Receiving
Yamir Knight
54 rec, 637 yds
Tackles
Ahmaad Moses
104 tot, 1 sk
Full roster (101)
0Derrick McFallWR0William NettlesCB1Ty HawkinsQB1Jarvis LeeS3Yannick SmithWR3Javion HolidayCB4Dramekco GreenRB4Jayvon ThomasCB5Malcolm Alcorn-CrowderDL6Kendrick RaphaelRB7Kevin JenningsQB7Ahmaad MosesS8Yamir KnightWR8Marcellus Barnes Jr.CB10Jalen CooperWR11Carterrious BrownWR11Jaden Milliner-JonesS12Caden MarshallLB13Daylon SingletonWR13Jaelyn Davis-RobinsonCB14Charlie FiserQB14Trey WilsonDE15La'Modrick SpencerS16Marques WhiteDE18Theo Melin OhrstromTE22Sael ReyesS23Alexander KilgoreLB24Link RhodesRB26Jaylen MosesS27Abdul MuhammadS28Mabrey MettauerQB28Brandon BookerLB29Brandon MiyazonoLB32Jamal AndersonLB48Morgan TribbettLS52Jahkai LangDE55Woo SpencerDL93Kevin AllenDL97Christian DavisDLIra SingletonDE2Jalen HaleWR2Zadian GentryCB5Randy Pittman Jr.TE6Tavion AtkinsonDE9Zack TurnerTE9Ira Singleton IVDE10Tyren Polley Jr.S12Cole LeinartQB15Aljour Miles IIWR16Jakai AndersonWR20EJ KellyRB20Deuce GilbertCB21Christian RhodesRB22Jordyn AdamsWR25William FierroRB26David Kniffen Jr.WR27Siler CookeWR30Kenneth Goodwin IIILB33Amontre HarrisDE35Dante Wesley IICB36Connor CarreraS38Jake BallardS42Will LockeTE43Wade McSparronP44Michael De HoyosCB47Cody WillifordLS50Graham UterOL50Marcus BrouseLB52Toa KatoaOL53Zachary HibnerLB55Sam UtuOL57Henry DouglassOL58Abel HoopiiOL58Aakil WashingtonDE59PJ WilliamsOL60Evan GoodwinOL63Addison NicholsOL64Joshua BatesOL65Bennett Johnson VOL66Hunter RyanOL70Paxton BriggleOL74Andrew ChambleeOL75Dramodd OdomsOL76Drew HillOL78Drew EversOL79Sione Ma'uOL81Tyrone CrethersWR83X'Zavier BarnettWR84Tripp RiordanTE85Andre Nickerson Jr.TE88Trey JacksonTE89Miles UterTE90Jalen ShiversDL94Jonathan JeffersonDL95Wyatt SmithDE95Michael SlabaPK96Christian de MoorDL96Wiley OlsonPK97Brendan BairdPK99Dakota DicksonDL99Nick ReedPK
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins2%
11+ wins69%
10+ wins34%
9+ wins58%
8+ wins79%
7+ wins83%
6+ wins92%
5+ wins93%
4+ wins94%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade SMU win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are SMU's playoff odds in 2026?

SMU make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 11.4% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the ACC in 5.7%, and win the national title in 0.5%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will SMU win in 2026?

The simulation projects SMU at 7.8 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are SMU's national title odds?

SMU have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.

How good are SMU by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, SMU rank #29 overall (offense #21, defense #41).

Where can I trade SMU markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

Trade SMU on Kalshi

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