Redshirt
Scout report

Oklahoma State 2026 outlook

The market gives Oklahoma State a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%3%5%8%10%Jan 24Apr 14Jun 23Jul 25Aug 23Sep 10Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.8.7#41
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.-12.1#113
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1110
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.198.6#53
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.703
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.13%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.1
#45 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
34%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.16
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.23
#47 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
44%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
15%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
292.5
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-5
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1@TulsaSep 5, 202668%Matchup
W2vsOregonSep 12, 202621%Matchup
W3vsMurray StateSep 19, 2026Not rated
W4@West VirginiaSep 26, 202656%Matchup
W6vsUCFOct 10, 202663%Matchup
W7@HoustonOct 17, 202639%Matchup
W8vsColoradoOct 24, 202677%Matchup
W9@Iowa StateOct 31, 202651%Matchup
W10@Kansas StateNov 7, 202631%Matchup
W11vsTexas TechNov 14, 202633%Matchup
W12@Arizona StateNov 21, 202652%Matchup
W13vsKansasNov 28, 202669%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Drew Mestemaker
4369 yds, 34 TD
Rushing
Caleb Hawkins
1424 yds, 25 TD
Receiving
Wyatt Young
70 rec, 1264 yds
Tackles
Ethan Wesloski
113 tot, 1.5 sk
Full roster (110)
0Justin BowickWR0Malik CharlesDE1Miles ColemanWR1Evan JacksonS2Chris BarnesWR2Isaiah ChisomLB3Terrence LewisWR3Tate RomneyLB5Israel PolkWR5Saadiq ClementsDT6Christian BodnarS7Quinton HammondsS8Kollin LewisCB9Grant JordanQB9LaDainian FieldsCB11Rodney Harris IIWR11Keviyan HuddlestonDE14Kobi ForemanCB15Fatafehi Vailea IIDT16Sam KeltnerPK17Drew MestemakerQB18Mose Phillips IIIS19DJ Jackson Jr.DE24Caleb HawkinsRB25Ayo AdeyiRB27Vincent HolmesS29Cooper LaiS81Donovan GreenTE87DeSean BrownDE88Landon DeanDT92Jerry LawsonDT94Braylon RigsbyDT95Jaleel JohnsonDE99Iman OatesDTDallas Winner-JohnsonLBEthan WesloskiLBEnai WhiteDTWyatt YoungWRBilly Walton IIIDEJames WilliamsDEKanijal ThomasDB4Mo HornCB6Tre Page IIIRB12Luke TepasQB12Cameron EppsS13Trudell BerryCB14Jabarie ThorntonWR15Kam PowellWR19Dayvon StandardWR20KD JonesRB20Taurean DavisLB22William MasonRB22Jeremy Cook Jr.S23Oscar HammondTE23Braeden PresleyS26Dennis Moody IIIRB26Maliek BracyCB28Marrel Davis IIICB29Malachi JacksonWR33Jack PuckettLB36Javen HallRB36Bobby Deal Jr.S37Lachie PozzobonP39Jeremiah PiperCB40Cooper MailandLB41Byron StubbsCB41Gabe PendyalaPK44Carson KolbTE44Rashod BradleyDE45Morgan McPhaulTE46Hunter TruslerS47Harrison DempseyS48Nolan AkinsLS49Joseph KimPK50Kole SeatonOL53Christian JonesLB54Johnny Dickson IIIOL56Tyler MercerOL57Simona FuailetoloOL58Isaiah BowmanOL59Xavier MasonDT62Jamison MejiaOL63Caleb HacklemanOL66Louie CanepaOL67Braydon NelsonOL68Joseph HansonOL70Shaun TorgesonOL71Miguel ChavezOL72O'Ryan MosleyOL73JaQwon EvansOL74Eli HolbrookOL75Jakobe SandersOL76Desmond MagiyaOL77Ashton LepoOL78Kai HolecOL79Jacob SextonOL82Luke LoganTE84Matrail LopezWR85Nate OstP87Blake HogshooterWR88Bodie BoydstunTE89Quincy SheltonWR90Savion BarthelemyDT91Landon BlandDE93Dominic MaconDT96Joey QuinnDE97Nygel FarseeDTMarkeith WilliamsSCaden YatesLSMaurion HornCB
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
11+ wins28%
10+ wins10%
9+ wins24%
8+ wins42%
7+ wins60%
6+ wins70%
5+ wins84%
4+ wins93%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Oklahoma State win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Oklahoma State's playoff odds in 2026?

Oklahoma State make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 5.1% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big 12 in 4.1%, and win the national title in 0.2%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Oklahoma State win in 2026?

The simulation projects Oklahoma State at 6.6 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Oklahoma State's national title odds?

Oklahoma State have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.

How good are Oklahoma State by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Oklahoma State rank #41 overall (offense #45, defense #47).

Where can I trade Oklahoma State markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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