Scout report
UCF 2026 outlook
UCF are not currently priced in the title market, but here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Outlook
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.-1.2#76
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.-0.8#70
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1448
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.171.2#79
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.710
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.10%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.15
#98 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
40%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.37
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.11
#51 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
42%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
16%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
378.9
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-4
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsSep 3, 2026Not rated
W3vsSep 19, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (105)
0DT1DB4DB5DB6EDGE7DB8DB9WR10EDGE11EDGE12QB12EDGE13WR18DB19LB20LB24LB31PK35RB38LB41EDGE49DB82WR88TE92DT95DT97DT99DTRBDE2WR3WR4RB5WR6WR8QB10QB11RB14QB14DB15LB15PK16QB16DB17DB18TE20RB21DB22DB23WR23LB24RB25DB26DB27DB28DB29DB30DB32LB33LB34LB36LB37LS39WR42RB42DT43LS45EDGE47TE47LB49P53OL54OL55OL55DT56EDGE57OL58OL61OL67OL68OL70OL72OL73OL74OL75OL76OL77OL78OL79OL80WR81WR83TE85WR86WR87TE90DT93DT94EDGE96EDGE97PK98EDGEOLEDGES
Advertisement
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are UCF's playoff odds in 2026?
UCF make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 0.6% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big 12 in 0.4%, and win the national title in 0%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will UCF win in 2026?
The simulation projects UCF at 6 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
How good are UCF by the numbers?
In 2025 SP+, UCF rank #76 overall (offense #98, defense #51).
Where can I trade UCF markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.