Redshirt
Scout report

Michigan 2026 outlook

The market gives Michigan a 0.9% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%15%30%45%60%Jan 22Mar 10Apr 26Jun 4Jul 13Aug 21Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.15.1#21
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.14.2#20
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1786
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.290.9#6
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.907
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.41%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.14
#41 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
46%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.13
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.03
#11 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
42%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
17%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
397.9
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+2
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsWestern MichiganSep 5, 202689%Matchup
W2vsOklahomaSep 12, 202650%Matchup
W3vsUTEPSep 19, 202699%Matchup
W4vsIowaSep 26, 202650%Matchup
W5@MinnesotaOct 3, 202666%Matchup
W7vsPenn StateOct 17, 202646%Matchup
W8vsIndianaOct 24, 202631%Matchup
W9@RutgersOct 31, 202682%Matchup
W10vsMichigan StateNov 7, 202682%Matchup
W11@OregonNov 14, 202624%Matchup
W12vsUCLANov 21, 202670%Matchup
W13@Ohio StateNov 28, 202615%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi
488 yds, 1 TD
Rushing
Jordan Marshall
932 yds, 10 TD
Receiving
Andrew Marsh
45 rec, 651 yds
Tackles
Chris Bracy
71 tot, 0 sk
Full roster (105)
0Kendrick BellWR0Jyaire HillCB3Andrew MarshWR5Jacob OdenS6JJ BuchananWR7Chris BracyS9Channing GoodwinWR10Zeke BerryCB12Nathaniel Owusu-BoatengLB13Aisea MoaLB16Brayden Fowler-NicolosiQB17Enow EttaDT18Troy BowlesLB23Jordan MarshallRB24Bryson KuzdzalRB25Micah Ka'apanaRB25Mason CurtisS30Max AlfordLB31Nico AndrighettoS36Tomas O'MearaRB42Jalen HoffmanTE53Jake GuarneraOL55Nathan EfobiOL80Hogan HansenTE83Zack MarshallTE85Logan ForbesWR90John Henry DaleyDE90Hudson HollenbeckP91Jonah Lea'eaDT94Nate MarshallDE95Trey PierceDT96Manuel BeigelOL99Bobby KankaDT99Trey ButkowskiPKNathaniel StaehlingLBTaylor TatumRBSmith SnowdenCB1Rod Moore Jr.S2Shamari EarlsCB5Savion HiterRB8Dom NicholsDE9Cam BrandtDE10Jaime Ffrench Jr.WR12Salesi MoaWR13Travis JohnsonWR14Tommy CarrQB14Carter MeadowsDE15Chase HerbstreitQB15Aden ReederLB16Jo'Ziah EdmondCB17Brady SmigielQB18Mason BonnerTE20Jaylen PileWR22Braydon AlfordWR22Jordan DeckS23Markel DabneyLB26Donovan JohnsonRB27Ernest NunleyS29Jonathan BrownRB32Jeremiah LoweCB33Kaden CatchingsLB33Cam BrownP35Ndi EttaLB35Stuart BlakePK36Josh NicholsCB37Julius HollyDE38Sam BaronCB39Max ReyesS40Jimmy PisaniTE41Tariq BoneyDE42Jeffrey ChukwuCB43Zach LudwigLB44Eli OwensTE46Crandall QuinnTE46Gavin MagorienLS49Adam BazziLB49Nico CrawfordLS50Luke HamiltonOL51McHale BladeDE52Ace HamiltonOL52Christian PierceLB54Deyvid PalepaleDT57Travis MotenDT58Malakai LeeOL60Brooks BahrOL64James KavouklisOL65Andrew BabalolaOL67Houston Ka'aha'aina-TorresOL67Trent MiddletonLS70Brady NortonOL71Evan LinkOL72Peter DoniniOL77Blake FrazierOL79Tommy FraumannOL81Jamar BrowderWR88Lugard Edokpayi Jr.DE89Avery GachOL89Kaleb SchlechtWR92Ted HammondDT93Benny Patterson IIIDE93Hunter RobertsonP97Titan DavisDT97Jacob BaggettPKCameron BrownPColin HurleyQB
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins6%
11+ wins97%
10+ wins21%
9+ wins37%
8+ wins64%
7+ wins82%
6+ wins91%
5+ wins94%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Michigan win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Michigan's playoff odds in 2026?

Michigan make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 15.6% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big Ten in 3%, and win the national title in 0.9%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Michigan win in 2026?

The simulation projects Michigan at 7.6 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Michigan's national title odds?

Michigan have a 0.9% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Polymarket.

How good are Michigan by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Michigan rank #21 overall (offense #41, defense #11).

Where can I trade Michigan markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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