Scout report
Kentucky 2026 outlook
The market gives Kentucky a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Aug 8.
Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.1.8#67
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.5.1#47
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1465
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.224#29
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.763
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.27%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.09
#80 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
43%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.14
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.17
#48 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
44%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
15%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
341.2
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-8
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsSep 5, 2026Not rated
W4vsSep 26, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (103)
0LB0DB1RB2RB2LB3QB3DB4WR4LB5DB6DT7WR7DL8LB13DB14QB14DB18WR19DB20DB21DB22LB24DB25LB26RB26DB28RB28DB30DB31LB53OL81TE87TE90DL91PK93DL94DLPK1DB5WR6WR8TE9QB9LB11DB12WR12DB13WR15QB16QB16DB17LB18DB19WR22RB23DL27DB32LB33WR33S34RB35PK37WR39WR40LS44TE48P50OL52OL53LB55OL55DL57OL60OL61OL62OL63OL64OL66OL67OL68OL69OL70OL72OL73OL74OL75OL77OL78OL79OL80WR82QB83WR84WR85TE89WR92DE93P97DE97LSDLQBS
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are Kentucky's playoff odds in 2026?
Kentucky make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 0.6% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the SEC in 0.3%, and win the national title in 0%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Kentucky win in 2026?
The simulation projects Kentucky at 5 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
What are Kentucky's national title odds?
Kentucky have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.
How good are Kentucky by the numbers?
In 2025 SP+, Kentucky rank #67 overall (offense #80, defense #48).
Where can I trade Kentucky markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.