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Scout report

Indiana 2026 outlook

The market gives Indiana a 8.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%15%30%45%60%Jan 22Mar 3Apr 21May 31Jul 10Aug 19Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.25.8#4
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.31.5#1
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.2346
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.201.8#47
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.645
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.25%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.32
#7 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
51%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.22
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.09
#3 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
34%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
23%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
456.3
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+22
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsNorth TexasSep 5, 202699%Matchup
W2vsHowardSep 12, 2026Not rated
W3vsWestern KentuckySep 19, 2026100%Matchup
W4vsNorthwesternSep 26, 202689%Matchup
W5@RutgersOct 4, 202694%Matchup
W6@NebraskaOct 10, 202671%Matchup
W7vsOhio StateOct 17, 202646%Matchup
W8@MichiganOct 24, 202669%Matchup
W9vsMinnesotaOct 31, 202691%Matchup
W11vsUSCNov 14, 202666%Matchup
W12@WashingtonNov 21, 202674%Matchup
W13vsPurdueNov 28, 202697%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Josh Hoover
3472 yds, 29 TD
Rushing
Turbo Richard
749 yds, 9 TD
Receiving
Shazz Preston
43 rec, 723 yds
Tackles
Rolijah Hardy
103 tot, 8 sk
Full roster (104)
1Turbo RichardRB1Amare FerrellDB2Byron Baldwin Jr.DB3Jaylen BellDB4Davion ChandlerWR4A.J. HarrisDB5Rolijah HardyLB6Lebron BondWR7Shazz PrestonWR7Chiddi ObiazorDL9Stephen DaleyDL10Josh HooverQB10Ryland GandyDB11Nick MarshWR12Tobi OsunsanmiDL14Kaiden TurnerLB15Nico RadicicPK17Jackson WasserstromWR17Daniel NdukweDL19Billy GowersP20Sean CuonoRB22Jamari SharpeDB28Khobie MartinRB29Lee Beebe Jr.RB31Anthony ChungDB33Garrett ReeseDB34Jeff UtzingerLB35Paddy McAteerPK36Clay ConnerDB40Quentin ClarkDL46Isaiah JonesLB65Carter SmithOL80Charlie BeckerWR88Brock SchottTE90Joe HjelleDL95Tyrique TuckerDL97Mario LandinoDL99Tyrone Burrus Jr.DLPreston ZachmanDB3Kortez RupertWR8Tyler MorrisWR8Josh BurnhamDL9Lavar KeysWR9Seaonta Stewart Jr.DB12Jacob BellQB13Quan SanksDB14Maverick GeskeQB15Tyler CherryQB16Jamar OwensDB18Parker ElmoreTE19Zacharey SmithDB21Jacob SavageLB22Jayreon CampbellRB23Henry OhlingerLB25D'Montae TimsDB26Cade KaiserWR26Iosua StephensDB27Kasmir HicksDB30PJ NelsonLB37Heath KizerDB38Kaden McConnellLB39Trevor GibbsTE41Keishaun CalhounDL42Kevontay HuganDL43Bryce TaylorPK44Amari KamaraLB45Lincoln MurffDB47Jackson TolleLS50Jhrevious HallDL52Clayton AllenLB55Rodney WhiteDL55Drew ClausenLS56Joe BrunnerOL57Sam LindseyLS60CJ ScifresOL62Drew EvansOL64Chance JohnsonOL66Evan ParkerOL70Austin LeibfriedOL71Ben NovakOL72Adedamola AjaniOL73Luke GrahamOL74Bray LynchOL75Sam SimpsonOL76Kenton MondeauOL77Matt MarekOL78Prescott HorvathOL81Jaidon Van PeltWR82Myles KendrickWR83Hunter StroudWR84Blake ThiryTE85Andrew BarkerTE86Bruno Massel IVWR87PJ MacFarlaneTE90Josh PlaczekPK91Blake SmytheDL92Gabe HillDL93Ronelle JohnsonDL93Quinn WarrenPK94Kyler GarciaDL98Cam McHaneyDLCarson WilliamsCBJoshua BurnhamEDGEJiquan SanksS
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins22%
11+ wins49%
10+ wins74%
9+ wins87%
8+ wins93%
7+ wins94%
6+ wins95%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Indiana win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Indiana's playoff odds in 2026?

Indiana make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 64.2% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big Ten in 20%, and win the national title in 8%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Indiana win in 2026?

The simulation projects Indiana at 9.4 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Indiana's national title odds?

Indiana have a 8.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 10% on Polymarket.

How good are Indiana by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Indiana rank #4 overall (offense #7, defense #3).

Where can I trade Indiana markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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