Scout report
Western Michigan 2026 outlook
Western Michigan are not currently priced in the title market, but here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Outlook
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.-2.6#80
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.-2.7#79
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1546
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.141.9#104
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.534
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.32%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.05
#105 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
42%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.04
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.03
#53 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
38%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
17%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
343
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+9
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W2vsSep 12, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (101)
0LB1DB2WR3WR4RB4DE6RB6S7WR8CB9DE11WR12QB12LB14S15TE18S19S20PK21RB22S25P31DE36LB42LB45LB47LB83TE88DE90DT96DL97DE98DL0RB1WR2DE5WR7DL8WR10QB10LB11LB13QB13CB15DE16QB16CB17WR17CB19WR20CB21CB22RB23S24RB24S26S27RB28LS29S30S32PK34P35TE37CB38LB39LB40TE40DE41DT43DE46DE46LS54C55OL55DT57OL58OL60OL61OL64OL65OL66OL67OL68OL70OL72OL73OL75OL76OL77OL80WR81TE86TE87TE88TE91DL93DL94DT95DLRB
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are Western Michigan's playoff odds in 2026?
Western Michigan make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 3% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the MAC in 29.2%, and win the national title in 0%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Western Michigan win in 2026?
The simulation projects Western Michigan at 8 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
How good are Western Michigan by the numbers?
In 2026 SP+, Western Michigan rank #80 overall (offense #105, defense #53).
Where can I trade Western Michigan markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.
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