Scout report
Kansas State 2026 outlook
The market gives Kansas State a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Aug 8.
Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.7#42
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.7.8#38
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1674
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.213.9#35
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.706
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.69%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.21
#46 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
41%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.41
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.12
#58 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
39%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
17%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
370.6
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+11
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsSep 5, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (104)
0TE0S1DE2QB2S3QB3S4RB4LB6WR7QB7CB9RB9CB10S12WR14S15DT17WR17S18S20RB20LB21CB22S23LB25CB26LB31RB35LB36S37PK39DE43PK44LB56DE76DT80TE84WR86TE91DEWRWRRB5WR5CB8P10QB12CB13CB14WR15WR16LB18WR19DT19S21RB24CB27CB29P30DE31S32CB33LS34CB40DE41LB45LS46LS50OL53OL54OL55OL57OL58DT59OL60OL61OL62OL64OL65OL66OL70OL72OL73OL74OL75DT77OL78OL79OL81TE83DE85WR87TE88TE88DT90DE94DT95DT96PK97DT98DE99DTWR
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are Kansas State's playoff odds in 2026?
Kansas State make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 5% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big 12 in 2.3%, and win the national title in 0.1%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Kansas State win in 2026?
The simulation projects Kansas State at 7 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
What are Kansas State's national title odds?
Kansas State have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.
How good are Kansas State by the numbers?
In 2025 SP+, Kansas State rank #42 overall (offense #46, defense #58).
Where can I trade Kansas State markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.