Scout report
Texas A&M 2026 outlook
The market gives Texas A&M a 2.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Aug 8.
Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.20.7#10
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.18.4#12
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1872
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.282.4#9
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.917
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.53%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.23
#11 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
46%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.23
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.12
#14 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
34%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
21%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
444.8
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-9
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W7vsOct 17, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (104)
0LB1WR1DB2RB2CB3S4RB4S5RB5DT6WR6CB7WR7S8WR9CB10QB10DE11WR11DT12DE13QB13S15DE17DE18WR19DB20CB21LB22S24PK26S39DB42DE45LB54LB75OL84TE92DT94DT99DTTEDE0RB3WR9TE13CB14QB16QB16CB16DE19TE19QB20WR22RB22DE23RB23CB24DB28S29DB31LB31LS32LB33LB34LB37S40LS42LS43TE46LB50OL52OL54OL55OL55DE56OL62OL64OL65OL70OL71OL72OL73OL74OL76OL78OL79OL80WR81TE83WR83PK85WR86TE86CB88TE90PK93DT95P96P98DE98DTLBRB
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are Texas A&M's playoff odds in 2026?
Texas A&M make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 38% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the SEC in 13%, and win the national title in 3%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Texas A&M win in 2026?
The simulation projects Texas A&M at 8.4 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
What are Texas A&M's national title odds?
Texas A&M have a 2.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 3% on Polymarket.
How good are Texas A&M by the numbers?
In 2025 SP+, Texas A&M rank #10 overall (offense #11, defense #14).
Where can I trade Texas A&M markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.