Redshirt
Scout report

Texas A&M 2026 outlook

The market gives Texas A&M a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%15%30%45%60%Jan 24Mar 17May 2Jun 8Jul 15Aug 21Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.18.3#14
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.18.4#12
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1872
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.282.4#9
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.917
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.53%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.2
#10 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
46%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.23
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.06
#19 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
34%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
21%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
444.8
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-9
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsMissouri StateSep 5, 202699%Matchup
W2vsArizona StateSep 12, 202682%Matchup
W3vsKentuckySep 19, 202681%Matchup
W4@LSUSep 26, 202639%Matchup
W5vsArkansasOct 3, 202690%Matchup
W6@MissouriOct 10, 202652%Matchup
W7vsThe CitadelOct 17, 2026Not rated
W8@AlabamaOct 24, 202641%Matchup
W10@South CarolinaNov 7, 202657%Matchup
W11vsTennesseeNov 14, 202651%Matchup
W12@OklahomaNov 21, 202646%Matchup
W13vsTexasNov 28, 202642%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Marcel Reed
3169 yds, 25 TD
Rushing
Rueben Owens II
639 yds, 5 TD
Receiving
Mario Craver
58 rec, 911 yds
Tackles
Ray Coney
128 tot, 2 sk
Full roster (104)
0Noah MikhailLB1Mario CraverWR1Bryce AndersonDB2Jamarion MorrowRB2Dezz RicksCB3Marcus RatcliffeS4Rueben Owens IIRB4Tawfiq ByardS5Tiger Riden Jr.RB5DJ HicksDT6Terry BusseyWR6Julio HumphreyCB7Isaiah HortonWR7Dalton BrooksS8Ashton Bethel-RomanWR9Rickey Gibson IIICB10Marcel ReedQB10Marco JonesDE11Kelshaun JohnsonWR11Brandon Davis-SwainDT12Nana Boadi-OwusuDE13Brady HartQB13Myles DavisS15Sam M'PembaDE17Ryan HendersonDE18TK NormanWR19Bravion RogersDB20Adonyss CurrieCB21Ray ConeyLB22Tom Tom Johnson Jr.S24David OlanoPK26Layne GerkeS39Adam GrahamDB42Kendall JacksonDE45Tommy ColliganLB54Jordan LockhartLB75Wilkin FormbyOL84Blake BuntynWR92CJ MimsDT94Angelo McCullomDT99Landon RinkDTHouston ThomasTEAnto SakaDE0KJ EdwardsRB3Aaron GregoryWR5Carsyn BakerRB9Kiotti ArmstrongTE14Eli MorcosQB16Helaman CasugaQB16Jamar Beal-GoinesCB16Bryce Perry-WrightDE19KK JohnsonTE19Paxton LandQB20Mike BrownWR22Tristian GivensDE23DeDe MurrayRB23Brandon ArringtonCB24Camren HamielDB28Chance CollinsS29Justin EcholsDB31Deyjhon PettawayCB31Shea FreibaumLS32Tank KingLB33Storm MillerLB34Kyle GarvisLB37Peyton GayS40Gray EvansLS42Boomer GrahamLS43Carter BraughTE46Qui BeckLB50Isendre AhfuaOL52Blake IvyOL54Mark Nabou Jr.OL55Hunter McKinneyOL55Samu MoalaDE56Nelson McGuireOL62Marcus GarciaOL64Sam RoseboroughOL65Avery MorchoOL70Robert BourdonOL71Tyree AdamsOL72Joshua MosesOL73Ashton FunkOL74Zaden KrempinOL76Trovon BaughOL78Coen EcholsOL79Lamont RogersOL80Jerome MylesWR81Luke BradenTE83Will HargettWR83Colton ChmelarPK84Richie Anderson IIITE85Chase BurtonWR86Evan JacobsonTE86Ryan BurtinCB88Micah RileyTE90Asher MurrayPK93Nathan MabonDT95Alex AbbottP96Waylon PetersP98Jesse ChukwuDE98Jermaine KinslerDTTJ SmithLBRichie AndersonTE
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins2%
11+ wins8%
10+ wins12%
9+ wins26%
8+ wins45%
7+ wins58%
6+ wins81%
5+ wins87%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Texas A&M win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Texas A&M's playoff odds in 2026?

Texas A&M make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 19.5% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the SEC in 2.1%, and win the national title in 1.7%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Texas A&M win in 2026?

The simulation projects Texas A&M at 7.1 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Texas A&M's national title odds?

Texas A&M have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Polymarket.

How good are Texas A&M by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Texas A&M rank #14 overall (offense #10, defense #19).

Where can I trade Texas A&M markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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