Redshirt
Scout report

LSU 2026 outlook

The market gives LSU a 4.4% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%15%30%45%60%Jan 23Mar 6Apr 26Jun 3Jul 11Aug 18Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.20.3#9
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.10.7#26
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1675
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.281.5#10
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.920
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.66%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.05
#25 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
40%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.19
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0
#5 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
39%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
17%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
334.2
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+7
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsClemsonSep 5, 202683%Matchup
W2vsLouisiana TechSep 12, 202697%Matchup
W3@Ole MissSep 19, 202656%Matchup
W4vsTexas A&MSep 26, 202661%Matchup
W5vsMcNeeseOct 3, 2026Not rated
W6@KentuckyOct 10, 202676%Matchup
W7vsMississippi StateOct 17, 202674%Matchup
W8@AuburnOct 24, 202665%Matchup
W10vsAlabamaNov 7, 202658%Matchup
W11vsTexasNov 14, 202647%Matchup
W12@TennesseeNov 21, 202644%Matchup
W13@ArkansasNov 28, 202686%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Sam Leavitt
1628 yds, 10 TD
Rushing
Caden Durham
505 yds, 3 TD
Receiving
Jackson Harris
49 rec, 963 yds
Tackles
Ty Benefield
105 tot, 0 sk
Full roster (110)
0Tamarcus CooleyS1Jayce BrownWR2Ty BenefieldS4Jackson HarrisWR5DJ PickettCB6TJ DotteryLB7Trey'Dez GreenTE8Husan LongstreetQB8Ja'Keem JacksonCB10Sam LeavittQB10Dashawn SpearsS12Malachi ThomasTE13Dilin JonesRB13Faheem DelaneS15Jaiden BrakerLB17Damien ShanklinDE19Gabriel RelifordDE21Michael Turner Jr.CB22Harlem BerryRB23Stacy GageRB23Aidan AndingCB24Tylen SingletonLB25Rod Gainey Jr.RB26Charles Ross IILB29Caden DurhamRB29Jordan RossDE31CJ JimcoilyLB34Mason DossettS41Junior TuihalamakaDE42Davhon KeysLB47Malik BloctonDT48Kolaj CobbinsDE61Braelin MooreOL67Bo BordelonOL80Scott StarzykPK82Roman MothershedWR88Malik ElzyWR90Stephiylan GreenDT90Grant ChadwickP92Brandon BrownDT96Dominick McKinleyDT97Dylan CarpenterDEDae'Quan WrightTEZxavian HarrisDTEugene Wilson IIIWRAchilles WoodsDTPrincewill UmanmielenDE2Tre' BrownWR11Landen ClarkQB16John HurleyS19Kaden MartinQB21Cayden JonesQB22Havon Finney Jr.CB24Joseph EbunRB25Aiden HallS26Nolon BuckelsWR27Raycine Guillory Jr.RB27Dez EllisCB28Jhase ThomasS30Treylan JamesCB32Keylan MosesLB32Gavin HigginsPK36Emari PetersonCB36Aidan CorbelloPK39Mack MulhernLS43Silas HallLS44Zach GraceTE45Sean PerretPK46James LarsonTE46Seth KnotheDB47JD LaFleurTE49Theo GraceLB50William Satterwhite IIOL51Ryan MiretOL52Ja'Quan SprinkleOL53Hayes FuquaOL54Ja'Mard Jones Jr.OL55Aliou BahOL55Lamar BrownDE56Jake IbietaLB57JaKolby JonesOT65Sean Thompkins Jr.OT66Solomon ThomasOT68Brett BordelonOL69Darrin StreyOT70Devin HarperOT71Brysten MartinezOT73Adrian LambOL74Braden AugustusOL75Weston DavisOT76Christian StampsOL77Jordan SeatonOT80Brayden AllenWR81Landon CraigTE83Corey Barber Jr.WR84Tyree HollowayWR85Josh JacksonWR86Jabari MackWR87JC AndersonTE87Joey AugustDT88Richard AndersonDT91Trenton HendersonDE93Jaylen BrownDE99Deuce GeraldsDT99Hayden CraigPWilliam SatterwhiteIOLWinston WatkinsWRTre' Brown IIIWRJa’Quan SprinkleIOLRaycine GuilloryRB
Advertisement
ProphetX ad
FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins1%
11+ wins16%
10+ wins37%
9+ wins56%
8+ wins77%
7+ wins87%
6+ wins92%
5+ wins94%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade LSU win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are LSU's playoff odds in 2026?

LSU make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 30.2% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the SEC in 4.4%, and win the national title in 2.7%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will LSU win in 2026?

The simulation projects LSU at 7.8 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are LSU's national title odds?

LSU have a 4.4% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 5% on Polymarket.

How good are LSU by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, LSU rank #9 overall (offense #25, defense #5).

Where can I trade LSU markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

Trade LSU on Polymarket

Sign up with code TGSWC: deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus.

All teams →