Scout report
Marshall 2026 outlook
Marshall are not currently priced in the title market, but here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Outlook
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.-11#110
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.-5.8#90
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1468
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.118.4#120
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.591
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.7%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.12
#78 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
44%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.12
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.09
#130 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
39%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
16%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
406.1
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+6
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W4vsSep 26, 2026Not rated
W11vsNov 14, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (103)
0WR0DB1QB1CB2WR2DB3WR5WR5LB6RB6LB7QB7EDGE8CB9WR10RB10LB11DB12DB14WR15WR17S24DL27LB32S52DL58DL81TE85TE92DLQB3S4DB9CB12QB13WR15S16WR16S17QB18WR18DB19WR19S20WR20S21RB21EDGE22RB22S23WR23DB24WR25LB28S29CB30LB31LB33LB34DL37CB39DB40LB41PK43LS44DL47LB49DL50OL51DL52OL53OL54OL55OL55DL56OL57OL59OL61OL62OL64OL65OL66OL67OL69OL70OL73OL74OL76OL77OL78OL80TE86TE90DL90PK91P95DL96PK97DT98DL99DLDLRB
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are Marshall's playoff odds in 2026?
Marshall make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 0.3% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Sun Belt in 3.8%, and win the national title in 0%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Marshall win in 2026?
The simulation projects Marshall at 7 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
How good are Marshall by the numbers?
In 2026 SP+, Marshall rank #110 overall (offense #78, defense #130).
Where can I trade Marshall markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.
Trade Marshall on Polymarket
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