Redshirt
Scout report

Oregon 2026 outlook

The market gives Oregon a 4.3% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%15%30%45%60%Jan 22Mar 3Apr 18May 28Jul 7Aug 16Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.24.4#5
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.23.9#4
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.2071
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.296.1#5
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.941
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.19%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.25
#6 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
47%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.34
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.03
#12 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
36%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
18%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
452.2
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+6
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsBoise StateSep 5, 202689%Matchup
W2@Oklahoma StateSep 12, 202679%Matchup
W3vsPortland StateSep 19, 2026Not rated
W4@USCSep 26, 202651%Matchup
W6vsUCLAOct 10, 202686%Matchup
W7vsNebraskaOct 17, 202677%Matchup
W8@IllinoisOct 24, 202675%Matchup
W9vsNorthwesternOct 31, 202688%Matchup
W10@Ohio StateNov 7, 202632%Matchup
W11vsMichiganNov 14, 202676%Matchup
W12@Michigan StateNov 21, 202688%Matchup
W13vsWashingtonNov 28, 202680%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Dante Moore
3565 yds, 30 TD
Rushing
Jordon Davison
667 yds, 15 TD
Receiving
Iverson Hooks
72 rec, 927 yds
Tackles
Koi Perich
82 tot, 1 sk
Full roster (101)
0Jordon DavisonRB0D'Antre RobinsonDL1Dakorien MooreWR1Bear AlexanderDL2Iverson HooksWR2Na'eem OffordDB3Jeremiah McClellanWR3Koi PerichDB4Brandon Finney Jr.DB5Dante MooreQB6Dierre Hill Jr.RB6Jerry MixonLB7Ify ObidegwuDB8Dylan RaiolaQB9Jamari JohnsonTE9Devon JacksonLB12Brock ThomasQB13Gavin NixLB14Aaron Scott Jr.DB21Da'Jaun RiggsRB21Aaron FlowersDB22Simeon PriceRB23Brayden PlattLB27Bleu DantzlerLB33Zach GrishamDB34Cruz RushingLB35Keaton EmmettPK38Will StratonLB47Elijah RushingDL55Matthew JohnsonDL72Iapani LalouluOL97Gage HurychPK99Jerome SimmonsDLCarl Williams IVDB4Tradarian BallRB5Davon BenjaminDB7Evan StewartWR8Trey McNuttDB10Jalen LottWR11Akili Smith Jr.QB13Gatlin BairWR14Ryder HayesQB15Messiah HamptonWR16TC ManumaleunaQB16Azel BanagDB17Markus DixonTE18Kendre HarrisonTE18Dorian BrewDB19Andrew OleshTE19Braylon HodgeLB20Xavier LherisseDB22Devin JacksonDB25Tristan PhillipsLB25Rocco GrazianoPK26Brandon SmithRB27Killian SombeRB28Anthony Jones Jr.DL29Arlo HendersonDB30Aaron BidwellWR30Xavier BarksdaleDB32Tony CumberlandDL35Brody ThomasLB36Michael SbuttoniP37Braxton SingletonDB39Cole ThomasLB39Bailey EttridgeP40Zander QuinnRB41Dutch HoriskLB42Aydin BrelandDL45Hudson CoeLB49Jack NicoliP50Demetri ManningOL51Prince TavizonLB53Devin BrooksOL54Aiden LeweyOL56Trent FergusonOL57Zac StascauskyOL58Ziyare AddisonOL59Fox CraderOL64Thomas DonkerbrookLS65Solomon KroekerOL66Bryce BoultonOL67Beau CressAllenOL68Auston MimsOL70Koloi KeliOL71RJ ToddLS73Kawika RogersOL74Dave IuliOL75Michael Bennett IIIOL79Immanuel IheanachoOL80Dillon GreshamWR81Dayton RaiolaTE82Nathan McCoy IIWR83Hudson LewisWR84Jovon McRae IIWR85Cole NewtonTE87A.J. PuglianoTE88Jack ResslerWR89Brady BidwellWR90Anthony JonesDL91Derrick Brown Jr.DL
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
11+ wins12%
10+ wins37%
9+ wins59%
8+ wins80%
7+ wins92%
6+ wins94%
5+ wins94%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Oregon win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Oregon's playoff odds in 2026?

Oregon make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 46.1% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big Ten in 15.1%, and win the national title in 6.1%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Oregon win in 2026?

The simulation projects Oregon at 8 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Oregon's national title odds?

Oregon have a 4.3% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 4% on Kalshi.

How good are Oregon by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Oregon rank #5 overall (offense #6, defense #12).

Where can I trade Oregon markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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