Redshirt
Scout report

Oklahoma 2026 outlook

The market gives Oklahoma a 0.6% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%11%23%34%45%Jan 24Mar 21May 2Jun 8Jul 15Aug 21Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.17.6#16
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.15.9#15
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1810
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.248.6#17
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.883
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.53%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.05
#47 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
40%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.24
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.06
#2 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
31%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
23%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
354.5
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-3
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsUTEPSep 5, 202699%Matchup
W2@MichiganSep 12, 202650%Matchup
W3vsNew MexicoSep 19, 202682%Matchup
W4@GeorgiaSep 26, 202622%Matchup
W6vsTexasOct 10, 202635%Matchup
W7vsKentuckyOct 17, 202679%Matchup
W8@Mississippi StateOct 24, 202658%Matchup
W9vsSouth CarolinaOct 31, 202666%Matchup
W10@FloridaNov 7, 202644%Matchup
W11vsOle MissNov 14, 202661%Matchup
W12vsTexas A&MNov 21, 202654%Matchup
W13@MissouriNov 28, 202650%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
John Mateer
2885 yds, 14 TD
Rushing
Tory Blaylock
482 yds, 4 TD
Receiving
Isaiah Sategna III
65 rec, 949 yds
Tackles
Kip Lewis
76 tot, 4 sk
Full roster (103)
1Isaiah Sategna IIIWR2Omarion RobinsonDB3Parker LivingstoneWR3Reggie Powers IIIDB4Courtland GuilloryDB5Jer'Michael CarterWR6Tory BlaylockRB6Nigel Smith IIDL7Jacob JordanWR7Taylor HeimLB9Lloyd AvantRB9Dakoda FieldsDB10John MateerQB10Kip LewisLB11Trell HarrisWR14Trystan HaynesDB16Whitt NewbauerQB16Danny OkoyeDL17Mackenzie AlleyneWR21Xavier RobinsonRB22Peyton BowenDB23Eli BowenDB24Jacobe JohnsonDB25Michael BoganowskiDB29Gabe SawchukRB29Tate SandellPK34Adepoju AdebaworeDL38Owen HeineckeLB42Wyatt GilmoreDL47James NestaLB65Jayden JacksonDL76E'Marion HarrisOL81Rocky BeersTE82Ivan CarreonWR89Hayden HansenTE94Kenny OzowaluDLBishop ThomasDLJack Van DorselaerTECole SullivanLB0Manny ChoiceWR2Jahsiear RogersWR4Daniel OdomWR5Markel FordDB8Bowe BentleyQB11Kristan MooreLB12Ryder MixTE12Derrick Johnson IIDB13Jayden PetitWR13Niko JandreauDB15Jett NiuQB15Beau JandreauLB17Jacob CurryLB18Tyler RuxerTE19Kade McIntyreTE19Brian HarrisDL20Jonathan Hatton Jr.RB20Casen CalmusDB21Jeremiah NewcombeDB23Ben McCrearyRB25Andy BassRB27Preston MickensDB27Trace RuddPK28Marcus JamesLB30Dane BathurstLB31Reed DeQuasieDB33Lebron BauerDB35D'Yoni HillCB35Liam EvansPK37Prince IjiomaDB40Matthew NelsonDL43Grayson MillerPK44John Locke Jr.TE50Ben AndersonLS51Jaydon SouthardLB52Noah BestOL54Seth FreemanLS55Eddy Pierre-LouisOL55Danny SailiDL56Michael FasusiOL57Gunnar AllenOL58James CarringtonDL60Caleb NittaOL64Sean HuttonOL65Ace HodgesOL68Owen HollenbeckOL69Jake MaikkulaOL70Ryan FodjeOL71Peyton JosephOL72Fred HintonOL73Deacon SchmittOL74Darius AfalavaOL75Daniel AkinkunmiOL77Heath OzaetaOL80Eli MerckWR80Bergin KysarDL84Xavier OkwufuluezeWR85Trey BrownWR87CJ NicksonTE92Jacob HenryDL95Daniel NormanDL97Alex ShieldnightDL98Jake KreulDL99Braxton FelyDL
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
11+ wins1%
10+ wins7%
9+ wins9%
8+ wins24%
7+ wins49%
6+ wins61%
5+ wins76%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Oklahoma win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Oklahoma's playoff odds in 2026?

Oklahoma make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 16% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the SEC in 5.3%, and win the national title in 1.5%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Oklahoma win in 2026?

The simulation projects Oklahoma at 6.6 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Oklahoma's national title odds?

Oklahoma have a 0.6% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 0% on Polymarket.

How good are Oklahoma by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Oklahoma rank #16 overall (offense #47, defense #2).

Where can I trade Oklahoma markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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