Scout report
Fresno State 2026 outlook
Fresno State are not currently priced in the title market, but here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Outlook
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.1.8#66
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.-4.3#85
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1548
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.142.6#103
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.587
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.17%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.1
#100 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
40%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.21
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.08
#37 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
38%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
17%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
354.1
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+5
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (104)
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are Fresno State's playoff odds in 2026?
Fresno State make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 1.7% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Mountain West in 6.5%, and win the national title in 0.1%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Fresno State win in 2026?
The simulation projects Fresno State at 6.9 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
How good are Fresno State by the numbers?
In 2025 SP+, Fresno State rank #66 overall (offense #100, defense #37).
Where can I trade Fresno State markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.