Redshirt
Scout report

Wake Forest 2026 outlook

The market gives Wake Forest a 0.7% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%3%5%8%10%Oct 27Oct 29Nov 1Nov 3Nov 5Nov 7

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Nov 7.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.12.2#26
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.2.1#61
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1531
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.189.1#63
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.627
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.26%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.09
#29 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
38%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.48
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.03
#35 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
36%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
18%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
393.8
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-6
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsAkronSep 3, 202699%Matchup
W2@PurdueSep 12, 202672%Matchup
W3vsMiamiSep 18, 202627%Matchup
W4@LouisvilleSep 26, 202644%Matchup
W5vsStanfordOct 3, 202694%Matchup
W6@NC StateOct 10, 202674%Matchup
W7@CaliforniaOct 18, 202686%Matchup
W9vsVirginiaOct 31, 202670%Matchup
W10vsMerrimackNov 7, 2026Not rated
W11@SMUNov 14, 202641%Matchup
W12@Georgia TechNov 21, 202675%Matchup
W13vsDukeNov 28, 202668%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Gio Lopez
1747 yds, 10 TD
Rushing
Ty Clark III
323 yds, 3 TD
Receiving
Carlos Hernandez
40 rec, 611 yds
Tackles
Davaughn Patterson
80 tot, 0 sk
Full roster (105)
1KD DanielsRB3Gio LopezQB4Ty Clark IIIRB5Kam ShanksWR5Davaughn PattersonDB6Steele PizzellaQB7Wondame Davis Jr.WR7Buom JockLB8Carlos HernandezWR8Braylon JohnsonDB10Jack FoleyWR10Gabe KirschkeDL11Ny CarrWR11Langston HardyDL12Kamrean JohnsonTE12Tylan McNicholsLB14Antonio MeeksWR15Devin CookDB18Drayden DickmannWR20Kerrington LeeDL21Aiden HallLB23Zeek JacksonWR26Freddie GillensDB29Jamar SearcyRB30Jerron BlackwellLB35Koredell BartleyDB43Frank CusanoLB52Dallas AfalavaDL55Kadear DembeleDL81Landon MorrisTE90Connor CalvertPK94Zach LohavichanDLChase TylerWR2Deuce Blades IIDB3Bernard CauseyDB4Sascha GarciaDB9Camden HardyDL13Billy JohnsonQB15Gannon JonesQB17Grant LawlessQB18D.J. JohnsonDL20Elijah OtienoWR21Kyndall McCalebRB22Deuce LawrenceRB23Vincent FirenzeLB24Sawyer SeidlRB24Micah BrightDB25Eli PottsWR25Joshua PattersonDB27Ryan HenleyRB28Hugh O'BrienWR28AJ MarksDB29Jake RyanDB32Joel LowenbergLB34Micheal AhouaDB36Seth CarethersDB38Walker BrysonWR38Somad EaddyDB39Mahamadou SibyDB39Wyatt FreemanLS42Isaac NelsonLB44Monroe PartinLB45Ethan HyamsP46Deuce DyceLB48Matthew LusardiTE48Ryan HarringtonDL49Eli GilmourLS50Ja'Marion KennedyOL51Devin McRaeOL52Uber AjongoOL55Tolu OlajideOL56Ethan CallowayOL60Will SabaOL62Jaishaun OffuttOL64Ryan BergerOL65Clinton RichardOL67Elliot DemaineOL68Luke BeemerOL69Dalton DeBoerOL72Aidan MartinOL74John OhnegianOL75Derrell Johnson IIOL77Dylan DurbinOL78Jack HinesOL79Langston HoggOL82Devin GoldstonWR83Kobe Adeleke-HokesWR84Dominick BarryTE85Will LoerzelTE88Bryce KaniaWR89Brady ShustTE90Sydir MitchellDL91Lucas Smalls-AllenDL92Sefa SackeyDL93Cade HollesDL96Cooper LongDL96Jack PloszayP97Matt HerronDL97Caleb CarlsonPK98Christian HarrisDL99Josiah PrattDLBrian Blades llCBWill WayIOLJosh PattersonSBernard Causey IIICB
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
11+ wins43%
10+ wins85%
9+ wins92%
8+ wins98%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Wake Forest win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Wake Forest's playoff odds in 2026?

Wake Forest make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 23.6% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the ACC in 5.1%, and win the national title in 1%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Wake Forest win in 2026?

The simulation projects Wake Forest at 9.7 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Wake Forest's national title odds?

Wake Forest have a 0.7% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.

How good are Wake Forest by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Wake Forest rank #26 overall (offense #29, defense #35).

Where can I trade Wake Forest markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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