Scout report
Sam Houston 2026 outlook
Sam Houston are not currently priced in the title market, but here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Outlook
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.-27.8#135
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.-24.3#135
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.994
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.108.5#122
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.477
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.52%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0
#129 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
36%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.25
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.24
#135 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
48%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
14%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
316.8
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+2
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1@Sep 5, 2026Not rated
W3vsSep 19, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (104)
0WR1WR2WR3WR5S6RB7WR8QB8S9S10RB10DT13S14DE15QB16DE17CB20CB21LB22RB26LB29S42LB45LB46LS48DE87TE94PK95DT97DT2CB3CB4WR4CB5WR6S7CB9QB11WR11S12WR12LB13WR14TE15DE16QB18LB19QB19DE20RB23LB24RB25RB27S28DE31P32LB33LB35CB36S37LB38S39CB41RB43RB44LB47LS49LS50OL52OL54OL56OL57OL58OL62OL63OL66OL67OL68OL71OL72OL73OL74OL75OL76OL80WR80TE81PK82TE83PK84WR85TE86TE89TE90DT91DE92DT93DT98DT99DTSWRCBLB
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are Sam Houston's playoff odds in 2026?
Sam Houston make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 0% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the C-USA in 0.2%, and win the national title in 0%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Sam Houston win in 2026?
The simulation projects Sam Houston at 3 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
How good are Sam Houston by the numbers?
In 2025 SP+, Sam Houston rank #135 overall (offense #129, defense #135).
Where can I trade Sam Houston markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.