Redshirt
Scout report

Mississippi State 2026 outlook

The market gives Mississippi State a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%3%5%8%10%Sep 16Sep 19Sep 21Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.12#30
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.3.4#58
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1468
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.224.6#28
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.770
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.42%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.1
#13 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
42%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.27
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.15
#56 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
43%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
14%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
399.2
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+3
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsUL MonroeSep 5, 202699%Matchup
W2@MinnesotaSep 12, 202659%Matchup
W3@South CarolinaSep 19, 202642%Matchup
W4vsMissouriSep 26, 202649%Matchup
W5vsAlabamaOct 3, 202638%Matchup
W7@LSUOct 17, 202626%Matchup
W8vsOklahomaOct 24, 202642%Matchup
W9@TexasOct 31, 202619%Matchup
W10vsVanderbiltNov 7, 202661%Matchup
W11vsAuburnNov 14, 202657%Matchup
W12vsTennessee TechNov 21, 2026Not rated
W13@Ole MissNov 27, 202636%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
AJ Swann
1494 yds, 10 TD
Rushing
Fluff Bothwell
677 yds, 6 TD
Receiving
Anthony Evans III
67 rec, 831 yds
Tackles
Isaac Smith
64 tot, 1 sk
Full roster (107)
0Gracen HarrisWR1Kamario TaylorQB1Kelley JonesCB2Marquis JohnsonWR2Isaac SmithS3Anthony Evans IIIWR3Kendel DolbyS5Xavier GaytenRB5Jardin GilbertS7Zakari TillmanLB8Jaden RashadaQB8Kaylib SingletonCB9Jaray BledsoeDL10Jalen SmithLB11Tyler LockhartLB12Ja'Bryis StewartLB13Sanfrisco MageeWR13LaKendrick JamesLB14Dealyn EvansDL16Derion GulletteLB17AJ SwannQB18Sekou Smith Jr.S20Jett JeffersonCB24Fluff BothwellRB26Jamroc GrimsleyCB28Tanner JohnsonS32AJ RiceLB35Kalvin DinkinsDL40Gus CordovaDL42DJ ReedDL44Gav HolmanLB45James Heard Jr.LB80Kyle FerriePK97Jayson JenkinsDL99Jamarcus MoyeDLAmaree WilliamsEDGEEddie Kelly Jr.DLMarcus WilliamsSRiley WilliamsTE0Fatt ForrestLB4Zayion CottonTE7Zion RaginsWR8Ethan PulliamP9Camden CapehartWR10Bull MitchellWR12Matt MayfieldWR14Brodie McWhorterQB15Parker PuckettQB16Jayden CrationWR17Kyle JohnsonCB19Junior HendersonWR19Micah NickersonDL21J.J. HillRB21Dre RileyS22Jayytee TaylorWR24Quentin TaylorCB25Cooper CrosbyRB25Kolby BarrettS29Boogie JohnsonS30Camron BrownCB31Terrance LoveS33Douglas Adams IIIDL34Vic SuttonS36Terrell Johnson Jr.CB37Dre OteyCB38Jaylen AntoineCB39Kallen CosperLS46Kyle RushingLS47Sean PleasantDB48Chris AddisonLB48Hayden ChambersPK49Shawn GeeDE50LJ PrudhommeOL53Dylan SteenOL54Blake SteenOL55Jakheem Shumpert-PerkinsOL55Colin CoatesDL56Wesley DavisOL58Miles McVayOL59Tyler MillerOL60Matthew LefeauOL62Jamari FreemanOL63Mario NashOL65Spencer DowlandOL66Ja'Elyne MatthewsOL71Saquon MilesOL72Canon BooneOL73Leon Noil Jr.OL74Kison ShepardOL75Isaiah DentOL76Jayden RossOL77TJ LockhartOL78DJ ChesterOL79Dalton ToothmanOL80Fisher SouthallWR81Zion CrumptonWR83Oisin FlynnPK84Adam LandTE85Luke HutchinsonTE88Joeseph SkipworthTE88Tico CrittendonDL89Jessie Primer IVWR91Lorenz CammonDL92Kaleb MorrisDLBrandon SnehOLMario Nash Jr.OTQuentin Taylor Jr.CB
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins1%
10+ wins17%
9+ wins34%
8+ wins54%
7+ wins65%
6+ wins83%
5+ wins89%
4+ wins96%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Mississippi State win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Mississippi State's playoff odds in 2026?

Mississippi State make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 9.9% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the SEC in 2.6%, and win the national title in 0.6%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Mississippi State win in 2026?

The simulation projects Mississippi State at 7.5 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Mississippi State's national title odds?

Mississippi State have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.

How good are Mississippi State by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Mississippi State rank #30 overall (offense #13, defense #56).

Where can I trade Mississippi State markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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