Redshirt
Scout report

Louisville 2026 outlook

The market gives Louisville a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%3%5%8%10%Jan 28Apr 13Aug 8Sep 1Sep 12Sep 22Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.13.3#25
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.10.2#28
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1749
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.183.1#68
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.701
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.35%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.1
#18 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
45%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.19
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.05
#40 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
36%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
17%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
384.6
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+3
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsOle MissSep 6, 202644%Matchup
W2vsVillanovaSep 11, 2026Not rated
W3vsSMUSep 19, 202659%Matchup
W4vsWake ForestSep 26, 202677%Matchup
W5@NC StateOct 3, 202664%Matchup
W6vsFlorida StateOct 9, 202673%Matchup
W7@SyracuseOct 17, 202675%Matchup
W9vsStanfordOct 31, 202692%Matchup
W10@Georgia TechNov 7, 202665%Matchup
W11@North CarolinaNov 14, 202665%Matchup
W12vsPittsburghNov 21, 202663%Matchup
W13@KentuckyNov 28, 202661%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Lincoln Kienholz
139 yds, 1 TD
Rushing
Isaac Brown
884 yds, 7 TD
Receiving
Tre Richardson
47 rec, 810 yds
Tackles
Koen Entringer
73 tot, 0 sk
Full roster (105)
0Tre RichardsonWR1Isaac BrownRB1Jabari MackDB2TreyShun HurryWR2Demeco KennedyDL3Lincoln KienholzQB3Tyler ThompsonDL4TJ BanksDB5Keyjuan BrownRB5Koen EntringerDB6Stanquan ClarkLB7Lawayne McCoyWR9Antonio WattsDB10Kaleb BeasleyDB11T.J. CapersLB12DJ Waller Jr.CB13Tayon HollowayDB14Kris HughesWR17AJ GreenDL19Micah CarterDL24Marquise DavisRB29Blake RuffinDB32Braxton JenningsRB36Jacob SmithLB40Eric HazzardDL43Trent CarterLB50Clev LubinDL52Kalib PerryLB66Johnnie Brown IIIOL76Tyler FolmarOL77Ryan ManisLS80Brody FoleyTE82Montavin QuisenberryWR85Justyn ReidTE88Jaleel SkinnerTE90Daylen RussellDL97Maurice DavisDL98Nick KellerPK99Jerod Smith IIDLSantana WilsonDB10Briggs CherryQB14Jackson VothWR15Julius MilesTE18Terrence McWilliams Jr.WR19Mason FieldsQB20Antonio HarrisDB21Jaydin BroadnaxDB22Lekhy ThompkinsRB23Benjamin PerryLB25Brycen ScottDB26Jordan VannS27Myles NorwoodDB30Taj PowellLB31Micah RiceDB33Kris BrunsonDB34Brady BallartLB35Carson HilbertPK37Anderson MitchellDB38Cam WhiteLB39Jordan GervaisDB41Caleb MatelauLB42Rhys DorseyWR44Travis EganTE45Marlon HarbinWR47Garion McPhersonDB48Jacob BakerP49DeVuan JonesWR51Hayden TravelsteadLS52Max MerzOL53Lance RobinsonOL54Drew KegebeinLS56Eryx DaughertyOL57Naeer JacksonOL59Reece SellersDL61Gradey AnthonyOL62Chris Jones Jr.DL63Bryten CloseOT65Ellis McAdooOL67James Glover-TysonOL70Anwar O'NealOL71Cason HenryOL72Sam SecrestOL73Ben CorheiOL74Jarvis StricklandOL75Cameron GorinOL78Charlie EdgeworthOL81Jakob DixonWR84Payton CookWR86Elizjah LewisWR87Dylan MesmanTE89Gavin WaddellWR90Hamilton AtkinsTE91Keon WebbDL91Niall HayesP92Garth WhitePK93Bailey AbercrombieDL94Dillon SmithDL95Joshua DonaldDL95Bode ShoapsPK98Sam DawsonDLMarlon HarbinWREvan WibberleyOLTommy ZiesmerDLDavin WydnerQBBen PerryLB
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
11+ wins11%
10+ wins37%
9+ wins55%
8+ wins75%
7+ wins84%
6+ wins95%
5+ wins92%
4+ wins94%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Louisville win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Louisville's playoff odds in 2026?

Louisville make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 17.2% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the ACC in 13.2%, and win the national title in 0.6%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Louisville win in 2026?

The simulation projects Louisville at 7.8 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Louisville's national title odds?

Louisville have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.

How good are Louisville by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Louisville rank #25 overall (offense #18, defense #40).

Where can I trade Louisville markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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