Kentucky vs South Carolina
Kentucky visit South Carolina in Week 5. The model favors South Carolina by 2.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ splits this one nearly down the middle: Kentucky grades slightly higher at 8 (44th) than South Carolina at 7.5 (49th), yet the model still favors the home side, giving South Carolina a 55% win probability and a 1.9-point margin. The market pushes harder in the same direction. The consensus line of South Carolina -3 implies 57%, and the ProphetX exchange sits at -142, or 59%. That gap between a 55% model read and a 57-to-59% market read is the entire disagreement here, and it tilts toward Kentucky value on the +136 (42%) offer.
The unit ranks reinforce how tight the projection is. Offenses are a virtual push at Kentucky #40 and South Carolina #39, while Kentucky owns the better defense at #47 against #51. The series, however, runs one way: South Carolina holds a 0-3 edge, including a 35-13 result in the 2025 meeting.
Form adds nuance the ratings smooth over. Kentucky is 3-1 with a road win at Texas A&M 31-21 and two blowouts, its only loss 17-45 to Alabama. South Carolina is 2-2, having crushed overmatched opponents but dropped both real tests, 34-41 to Mississippi State and 18-49 at Alabama. Projected wins favor Kentucky 6.3 to 5.4, with title odds level at 0.8%.
A coin-flip on the model, a field-goal favorite on the market: the daylight sits on Kentucky's +136.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Kentucky's win price; South Carolina's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Kentucky is favored, below it South Carolina is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Kentucky vs South Carolina game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Kentucky vs South Carolina market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Kentucky and South Carolina play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at South Carolina.
Who is favored?
The model projects South Carolina by 2.8 (57% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Kentucky lead 7-5 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →