South Carolina vs Florida
South Carolina visit Florida in Week 6. The model favors Florida by 2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these SEC sides cleanly: Florida rates 18.5 (12th) against South Carolina at 7.5 (49th), an 11-point ratings gap that drives a projected Florida margin of 13.4 and a 79 to 21 win probability. The market sits slightly softer, pricing Florida -11.5 with a 60.5 total and a 76 to 24 implied split. The ProphetX exchange runs further toward the favorite, offering Florida at -465 (82%) and South Carolina at +425 (19%), so the model's edge, if any, leans to the underdog relative to the exchange.
The unit breakdown favors the home side on both lines: Florida's offense ranks 9th to South Carolina's 39th, and its defense 31st to the visitor's 51st. Series history reinforces the lean, with Florida holding a 7-3 edge and taking the last meeting in 2023 by 41-39, a result that fits the high 60.5 total.
Form cuts the same way. South Carolina's wins came against Kent State (57-0) and Towson (45-9), with losses to Mississippi State, Alabama (18-49) and Kentucky (34-35), and a projection of 4.8 wins and 0.8% Playoff odds. Florida sits at 8 projected wins and 25.1% to reach the Playoff, with quality results over Auburn (44-39) and Ole Miss (52-28) offset by a 17-45 loss at Missouri.
Model, market and exchange all land on Florida, with the exchange's -465 the firmest read and South Carolina's value, if any, as a live dog.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the South Carolina vs Florida game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the South Carolina vs Florida market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do South Carolina and Florida play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Florida.
Who is favored?
The model projects Florida by 2 (55% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Florida lead 7-3 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →