Mississippi State vs South Carolina
Mississippi State visit South Carolina in Week 3. The model favors South Carolina by 3.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market agree on direction and disagree on scale. SP+ rates South Carolina 16.9 (17th) against Mississippi State's 10 (37th), a 6.9-point edge that projects the Gamecocks by 9.3 and assigns them a 71% win probability. The consensus line is far shorter at South Carolina -3.7 with a 58.8 total, implying 59%, and the ProphetX exchange sits between at -168 (63%). That distance between the model's 71% and the market's 59% to 63% is the central read: SP+ sees more separation than the price offers.
The unit ranks explain the lean. South Carolina's defense (13th) grades well ahead of Mississippi State's (60th), while the offenses are closer, 28th against 19th. Both teams enter 2-0 against light competition: South Carolina outscored Kent State and Towson 102-9, Mississippi State handled UL Monroe 62-13 and won at Minnesota 38-13. The series is even at 1-1, with South Carolina taking the last meeting 37-30 in 2023. Season-long, the simulation projects 7.1 wins and 16.8% Playoff odds for South Carolina against 6.5 and 4.7% for Mississippi State.
With the model's implied price richer than both the consensus line and the exchange, the value points toward South Carolina at the current number.
SP+ prices South Carolina well ahead of the market, making the Gamecocks the model's clear lean at a discounted number.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Mississippi State's win price; South Carolina's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Mississippi State is favored, below it South Carolina is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Mississippi State vs South Carolina game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Mississippi State vs South Carolina market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Mississippi State and South Carolina play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at South Carolina.
Who is favored?
The model projects South Carolina by 3.4 (58% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →