Tennessee vs South Carolina
Tennessee visit South Carolina in Week 8. The model favors Tennessee by 4.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The sharpest feature of this matchup is the split between model and market. SP+ rates Tennessee 17.5 (13th) against South Carolina at 10 (32nd), projecting the visitor by 5.1 and a 62% win probability. The market reads it the other way: the consensus of two books lists South Carolina -2.5 with a 56% implied edge, and ProphetX offers price Tennessee +119 (46%) to South Carolina -122 (55%). A roughly seven-point gap between projection and line is the whole story.
Unit ratings favor Tennessee on both sides: offense 24th to 29th and, more decisively, defense 16th to 48th. That defensive separation against a South Carolina offense ranked 48th on the other side underpins the model's lean, with the total set at 50.8. Series history also tilts Tennessee, which leads 6-4 and took the last meeting in 2023, 41-20.
Form adds nuance. Tennessee sits 6-1 with wins over Alabama (26-10), Auburn and Arkansas, its lone loss 17-20 to Texas. South Carolina is 3-3, blown out at Alabama 18-49 but coming off a 38-19 win at Florida. The season model projects 9 wins and a 35.5% Playoff chance for Tennessee versus 5.9 wins and 2.6% for South Carolina.
Model favors Tennessee by 5.1 while the market makes South Carolina a 2.5-point home pick: a rare seven-point disagreement.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Tennessee's win price; South Carolina's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Tennessee is favored, below it South Carolina is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 8.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Tennessee vs South Carolina game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Tennessee vs South Carolina market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Tennessee and South Carolina play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at South Carolina.
Who is favored?
The model projects Tennessee by 4.4 (61% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Tennessee lead 6-4 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →