South Carolina vs Oklahoma
South Carolina visit Oklahoma in Week 9. The model favors Oklahoma by 1.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ makes this close to a coin flip, rating South Carolina 11 (28th) against Oklahoma 10.3 (33rd), a gap under a point that yields a projected Oklahoma margin of 1.7 and a 54% to 46% edge. The market disagrees in degree: the consensus line of Oklahoma -4.7 implies 61%, and the ProphetX exchange prices the Sooners at -184 (65%) against South Carolina +178 (36%). That is a wide spread between a model near a toss-up and a market treating Oklahoma as a clear favorite, with a total of 44.3.
The unit splits frame the clash. South Carolina pairs the 23rd offense with the 47th defense, while Oklahoma leans on the 6th defense behind an offense ranked 88th. The series sits 1-1, but the last meeting in 2025 went Oklahoma 26-7. Form is uneven: South Carolina is 4-3 with wins over Florida 38-19 and Tennessee 27-24 against losses to Mississippi State, Alabama and Kentucky 34-35. Oklahoma is 4-3, beating Texas 27-24 but falling to Kentucky 13-21.
Both profiles stay modest: projected 6.5 and 6.4 wins, title odds of 0.3% and 0.2% against a market 0.8% apiece.
The model splits this near even at Oklahoma by 1.7, while the market prices the Sooners a full field goal clear.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as South Carolina's win price; Oklahoma's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line South Carolina is favored, below it Oklahoma is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the South Carolina vs Oklahoma game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the South Carolina vs Oklahoma market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do South Carolina and Oklahoma play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Oklahoma.
Who is favored?
The model projects Oklahoma by 1.7 (54% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →