Kent State vs South Carolina
Kent State visit South Carolina in Week 1. The model favors South Carolina by 40.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market land in the same place on the outcome and differ only on scale. SP+ rates South Carolina at 12.6 (24th) against Kent State at -22.4 (129th), a 35-point rating gap that projects a 37.4-point South Carolina margin. Both the model and the two-book consensus put South Carolina at 99% to win and Kent State at 1%. The friction is the number: the market sets the line at -36, roughly a point and a half short of the model's projected margin, with the total at 54.
Unit ranks explain the chasm. South Carolina's defense ranks 21st and its offense 41st, while Kent State sits 128th on both sides. Season simulations widen the separation: South Carolina projects to 6.6 wins with a 10.3% Playoff chance and 0.6% title odds, near the market's 0.7%. Kent State's 10,000-run outlook returns 4 wins, 0% Playoff and 0% title. With the winner priced as settled, the margin against that -36 line is the only tradable question here.
Model and market agree at 99% on South Carolina; the only live question is whether the 37.4-point projection clears the -36 line.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Kent State's win price; South Carolina's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Kent State is favored, below it South Carolina is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Kent State vs South Carolina game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Kent State vs South Carolina market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Kent State and South Carolina play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at South Carolina.
Who is favored?
The model projects South Carolina by 40.2 (99% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →