Oregon vs Ohio State
Oregon visit Ohio State in Week 10. The model favors Ohio State by 14. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams more than the market does. Ohio State grades out at 28.6 and ranks first overall, against Oregon's 17 and rank of 12, and the model projects a 14-point Buckeye margin with an 80% win probability. The consensus line is Ohio State -7.7 with a 46.5 total, implying just 68%, while the ProphetX exchange prices the Buckeyes at -280, or 74%. Every source favors Ohio State, but the model is the most emphatic, leaving Oregon's 20% model number below both its 32% market-implied and 27% exchange prices.
The unit ranks explain the gap. Ohio State pairs the #4 offense with the #1 defense, a profile Oregon's #28 offense and #11 defense cannot match on paper. The series is level at 2-2, and Oregon took the last meeting 32-31 in 2024, which tempers the lopsided ratings. Season form is mixed: Oregon is 5-3 with losses at Oklahoma State, to UCLA 15-17 and at Illinois 10-21, while Ohio State is 6-2 with narrow setbacks at Texas 23-24 and at USC 18-30.
On the futures, Ohio State projects 8.9 wins with 77.4% Playoff odds and a 13.1% title number against 5.2% at market, while Oregon sits at 7.3 wins, 16.5% Playoff and 1.3% title versus 0.6% priced.
The model (Ohio State 80%) sits well above the market (68%) and the exchange (74%), flagging the Buckeyes as the value side.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Oregon's win price; Ohio State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Oregon is favored, below it Ohio State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Oregon vs Ohio State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Oregon vs Ohio State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Oregon and Ohio State play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Ohio State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Ohio State by 14 (80% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 2-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →