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Matchup preview

Michigan vs Ohio State

Michigan visit Ohio State in Week 13. The model favors Ohio State by 17. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
15%
85%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 1 book
Spread
OSU -13.5
Total (O/U)
46.5
Favorite
OSU
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 1 sportsbook. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#21SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#1
#20FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#2
1786EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.2138
0.9%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.11.2%
MichiganOhio Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Ohio State lead 7-4
20152025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
27-9
Ohio State
at Michigan
2024
13-10
Michigan
at Ohio State
2023
30-24
Michigan
at Michigan
2022
45-23
Michigan
at Ohio State
2021
42-27
Michigan
at Michigan
2019
56-27
Ohio State
at Michigan
2018
62-39
Ohio State
at Ohio State
2017
31-20
Ohio State
at Michigan
2016
30-27
Ohio State
at Ohio State
2015
42-13
Ohio State
at Michigan
2014
42-28
Ohio State
at Ohio State
More Week 13 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Michigan vs Ohio State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Michigan vs Ohio State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Michigan and Ohio State play?

Week 13 of 2026, on Nov 28, 2026 at Ohio State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Ohio State by 17 (85% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Ohio State lead 7-4 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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