Illinois vs Ohio State
Illinois visit Ohio State in Week 4. The model favors Ohio State by 21. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 18.6 points, rating Ohio State 29.7 (rank 1) against Illinois at 11.1 (rank 33). The model projects Ohio State by 21 with a 90% win probability, but every market prices the favorite harder: the consensus line sits at -26.7 with a 53.8 total, the implied probability climbs to 95%, and ProphetX offers Ohio State at -2500 (96%) versus Illinois +2250 (4%). That six-point spread gap between model margin and market line is the read, with the number set well past the projection.
The unit ranks explain the market's confidence. Ohio State pairs the #5 offense with the #1 defense, while Illinois brings a respectable #23 offense but only a #52 defense. Season form tracks that edge: Ohio State posted 56-3 and 59-3 wins around a one-point 23-24 loss at Texas, while Illinois beat UAB 42-23 and Southern Illinois 48-10 but lost 27-31 to Duke.
The series favors Ohio State 0-4, most recently 34-16 in 2025. Season simulations frame the tiers cleanly: Ohio State projects 8.3 wins with 66.1% Playoff odds and an 11.8% title chance, against Illinois at 6.3 wins, 5.2%, and 0.3%.
The model likes Ohio State by 21 but the market prices it steeper at 26.7, leaving Illinois the value side of a lopsided board.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Illinois's win price; Ohio State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Illinois is favored, below it Ohio State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Illinois vs Ohio State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Illinois vs Ohio State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Illinois and Ohio State play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Ohio State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Ohio State by 21 (90% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Ohio State lead 4-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →