Ohio State vs Indiana
Ohio State visit Indiana in Week 7. The model favors Ohio State by 2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ sees a near-even game: Ohio State rates 29.5 (rank 1), Indiana 26.7 (rank 5), with the model splitting win probability 51% to 49% and projecting Ohio State by just 0.4 points. The markets disagree. The consensus line sets Indiana +3.5 on a total of 51, implying 58% for Ohio State, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further to Ohio State -166 (62%) against Indiana +162 (38%). The model and the price diverge by roughly ten points of win probability, all of it tilted toward the visitor.
The unit ranks explain the market lean: Ohio State holds the #1 offense and #1 defense, while Indiana sits #7 and #4. Resumes muddy that edge. Ohio State is 5-1 with its only loss at Texas by one, 23-24, and wins by 31 at Iowa and 29 over Maryland. Indiana is 6-0, including a 47-15 road win at Rutgers and tighter escapes at Nebraska 20-17 and over Northwestern 29-23. The series is lopsided at 1-11, yet the lone Indiana win came last, 13-10 in 2025.
Season simulations favor Indiana on wins (10.4 to 9.1) and Playoff odds (76.9% to 73.3%), while Ohio State carries higher title equity at 10.8% versus 9.1%. Market title pricing inverts that, 15.6% for Ohio State against 6.8% for Indiana.
SP+ calls this a coin flip, but both markets price Ohio State as a clear favorite, and that gap is the trade.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Ohio State's win price; Indiana's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Ohio State is favored, below it Indiana is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Ohio State vs Indiana game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Ohio State vs Indiana market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Ohio State and Indiana play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Indiana.
Who is favored?
The model projects Ohio State by 2 (55% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Ohio State lead 11-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →