Ohio State vs Texas
Ohio State visit Texas in Week 2. The model favors Ohio State by 3.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market split on this one. SP+ rates Ohio State 30 (rank 1) against Texas at 25.4 (rank 4), projecting a 2.2-point Ohio State edge and a 55% road win probability. The consensus of two books leans the other way at Texas -1.7 with a 49.5 total, pricing Texas at 54%. The ProphetX exchange echoes that read, offering Ohio State +113 (47%) and Texas -119 (54%). So a narrow ratings gap that favors the visitor meets a market that shades the home side, leaving a live disagreement worth about nine points of win probability.
Unit ranks reinforce the model's lean: Ohio State grades #1 on defense and #3 on offense, while Texas sits #8 on defense and #5 on offense. The series adds Ohio State 2-0, including a 14-7 defensive result in 2025. Early returns are lopsided but hollow given the competition, Ohio State handling Ball State 56-3 and Texas beating Texas State 59-7.
The season simulations tilt clearly toward the visitor. Ohio State projects to 9 wins, 72.2% to reach the Playoff and 13% to win the title against a 11% market price. Texas projects to 8.1 wins, 49.6% Playoff odds and 6.1% to win it all, roughly in line with the 7.1% market number.
Model favors Ohio State by 2.2 and 55%, but both the books and ProphetX price Texas at 54%: a genuine home-side disagreement.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Ohio State's win price; Texas's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Ohio State is favored, below it Texas is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Ohio State vs Texas game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Ohio State vs Texas market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Ohio State and Texas play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Texas.
Who is favored?
The model projects Ohio State by 3.2 (58% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Ohio State lead 2-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →