Maryland vs Ohio State
Maryland visit Ohio State in Week 6. The model favors Ohio State by 33.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch: Ohio State rates 28.8 (rank 2) against Maryland's 3.9 (rank 55), a gap that projects the Buckeyes by 27.3 with a 95% win probability. The market pushes harder, posting Ohio State -34.5 and a 56.3 total for a 98% implied edge, while the ProphetX exchange prices the favorite at -25000 (100%) and Maryland at +4800 (2%). The three points separating the model's number from the consensus spread mark the only real disagreement here, with the market demanding more cushion than the ratings require.
The unit splits explain the daylight. Ohio State ranks first on offense and second on defense; Maryland sits 56th and 54th. Season results reinforce it: the Buckeyes are 4-1, their lone loss 23-24 at Texas, with wins by 53 over Ball State, 56 over Kent State, 23 over Illinois and 17 at Iowa. Maryland opened 2-0 against Hampton and UConn, then dropped three straight, including 3-54 to UCLA and 23-48 at Nebraska. The series tilts entirely one way at 0-9, the 2023 meeting a 37-17 Ohio State win.
Context beyond the game aligns with the ratings. Ohio State projects 8.9 wins, 70.4% Playoff odds and a 10.4% title probability against a 12.7% market number, while Maryland projects 4.9 wins and 0.3% to reach the Playoff. Nothing in the numbers argues against the favorite.
Every input, SP+, market and exchange, stacks on Ohio State, with the only friction the three points between the model's 27.3 and the -34.5 line.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Maryland's win price; Ohio State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Maryland is favored, below it Ohio State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Maryland vs Ohio State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Maryland vs Ohio State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Maryland and Ohio State play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Ohio State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Ohio State by 33.1 (98% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Ohio State lead 9-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →