Kent State vs Ohio State
Kent State visit Ohio State in Week 3. The model favors Ohio State by 56.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch with no room for interpretation. Ohio State rates 29.2 and ranks second nationally; Kent State sits at -21.5 and 133rd, a roughly 51-point ratings gap that the model converts into a projected Ohio State win by 53.1 points and a 100 percent win probability. The market lands in the same place, pricing Ohio State at -52.7 with a total of 59 and an implied 100 percent. Model and market diverge by only 0.4 points on the spread, so the tradable question is the total and the exact margin, not the outcome.
The unit ranks reinforce the separation. Ohio State pairs the fourth-ranked offense with the top-ranked defense, while Kent State ranks 126th on offense and 128th on defense. Season results show both extremes: Kent State was shut out 0-57 at South Carolina before beating Wofford 36-15, and Ohio State opened 56-3 over Ball State, then lost 23-24 at Texas. The lone series meeting, a 66-0 Ohio State result in 2014, is the only prior data point and aligns with the projected blowout.
The simulations keep the teams in different tiers. Ohio State projects to 8.4 wins with a 64.7 percent Playoff chance and a 10.2 percent title probability, close to the market title price of 10.7 percent. Kent State projects to 4.3 wins with 0 percent Playoff and 0 percent title odds. Nothing in the numbers argues against Ohio State; the edge, if any, lives in how the final margin settles against 52.7 and the total of 59.
A 53.1-point model projection and 100 percent win probabilities on both sides leave no daylight, only a total worth pricing.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Kent State's win price; Ohio State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Kent State is favored, below it Ohio State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Kent State vs Ohio State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Kent State vs Ohio State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Kent State and Ohio State play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Ohio State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Ohio State by 56.9 (100% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Ohio State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →