Ohio State vs Iowa
Ohio State visit Iowa in Week 5. The model favors Ohio State by 13.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 14 rating points, Ohio State at 28.8 (rank 2) against Iowa at 14.8 (rank 19), and projects the Buckeyes by 11.6. The model gives Iowa a 24% chance, but the consensus line of Iowa +14.3 implies 19% and the ProphetX exchange prices Iowa at +495, or 17%. That is a consistent gap: both the market and the exchange shade harder toward Ohio State than the ratings do, which frames Iowa as the side where the model finds slack against the price.
The unit splits explain the spread. Ohio State pairs the #1 offense with the #2 defense, while Iowa leans on the #10 defense to offset a #51 offense, a profile that fits a 45.5 total. Series history is thin and one-directional: Iowa is 0-1 against Ohio State, with the 2024 meeting a 35-7 Buckeye win.
Results this season cut against the price. Iowa is unbeaten at 4-0 with a road win at Michigan (20-19) and two shutouts, while Ohio State is 3-1, its only blemish a 24-23 loss at Texas. Both project to 8.6 wins, but the models diverge sharply on ceiling: Ohio State sits at 65.8% to make the Playoff and 10.5% to win the title, Iowa at 21.5% and 1%.
The model favors Ohio State by 11.6 but its 24% for Iowa tops both the 19% line and the 17% exchange price, flagging value on the underdog.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Ohio State vs Iowa game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Ohio State vs Iowa market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Ohio State and Iowa play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Iowa.
Who is favored?
The model projects Ohio State by 13.8 (80% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Ohio State lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →