Redshirt
Matchup preview

Ohio State vs Iowa

Ohio State visit Iowa in Week 5. The model favors Ohio State by 10. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
73%
27%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Ohio State83%-10 ptsvsIowa17%+10 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Ohio State favoredIowa favoredSep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Ohio State's win price; Iowa's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Ohio State is favored, below it Iowa is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#1SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#18
#2FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#18
2138EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1937
11.2%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.8%
Ohio StateIowasolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Ohio State lead 2-1
Ohio State have won the last 2
20172024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2024
35-7
Ohio State
at Ohio State
2022
54-10
Ohio State
at Ohio State
2017
55-24
Iowa
at Iowa
More Week 5 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Ohio State vs Iowa game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Ohio State vs Iowa market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Ohio State and Iowa play?

Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Iowa.

Who is favored?

The model projects Ohio State by 10 (73% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Ohio State lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

Trade this game
Code VAULT: trade $10, get $20
ProphetX →