Ball State vs Ohio State
Ball State visit Ohio State in Week 1. The model favors Ohio State by 56.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market land in the same place on the outcome and split only on scale. SP+ rates Ohio State 32.7 (rank 1) against Ball State at -25.1 (rank 133), a 57.8-point ratings chasm that pins win probability at 100% for the Buckeyes and 0% for the Cardinals, matching the market-implied read exactly. The disagreement is in the number: the model projects Ohio State by 60.2, while the consensus of two books sets the line at -50.7, a 9.5-point cushion for anyone fading the favorite against the spread. The posted total sits at 56.5.
The unit ratings reinforce the mismatch rather than complicate it. Ohio State pairs the #2 offense with the #1 defense; Ball State counters with the #135 offense and #129 defense, bottom-tier on both sides of the ball. The season simulations frame the divide over 10,000 runs: Ohio State projects to 9.4 wins with an 84% Playoff probability and 18% title chance, the last of which runs hot against the market's 11.1% title price. Ball State projects to 3.9 wins with 0% Playoff and 0% title odds.
For a Week 1 opener, the numbers offer no live question on who wins, only on margin. The model's 60.2-point projection against the market's 50.7 is the single edge worth pricing, and Ohio State's model title figure trading above its market number is the more interesting standalone signal.
A settled outcome with two soft spots: the model prices Ohio State 9.5 points past the spread and 6.9 above the market's title odds.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Ball State's win price; Ohio State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Ball State is favored, below it Ohio State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Ball State vs Ohio State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Ball State vs Ohio State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Ball State and Ohio State play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Ohio State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Ohio State by 56.4 (100% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →