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Matchup preview

Michigan State vs Michigan

Michigan State visit Michigan in Week 10. The model favors Michigan by 15.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
18%
82%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 1 book
Spread
MICH -16.5
Total (O/U)
50.5
Favorite
MICH
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 1 sportsbook. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#65SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#21
#66FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#20
1409EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1786
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.9%
Michigan StateMichigansolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Michigan lead 7-5
Michigan have won the last 4
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
31-20
Michigan
at Michigan State
2024
24-17
Michigan
at Michigan
2023
49-0
Michigan
at Michigan State
2022
29-7
Michigan
at Michigan
2021
37-33
Michigan State
at Michigan State
2020
27-24
Michigan State
at Michigan
2019
44-10
Michigan
at Michigan
2018
21-7
Michigan
at Michigan State
2017
14-10
Michigan State
at Michigan
2016
32-23
Michigan
at Michigan State
2015
27-23
Michigan State
at Michigan
2014
35-11
Michigan State
at Michigan State
More Week 10 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Michigan State vs Michigan game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Michigan State vs Michigan market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Michigan State and Michigan play?

Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Michigan.

Who is favored?

The model projects Michigan by 15.2 (82% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Michigan lead 7-5 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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