Iowa vs Michigan
Iowa visit Michigan in Week 4. The model favors Michigan by 0.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates this a coin flip and actually leans Iowa on rating, 17.3 (18th) to Michigan's 15.1 (21st), with a projected Michigan margin of just 0.2 points and a 50 percent win probability each way. The market disagrees sharply: the consensus line of Michigan -5.5 implies 63 percent, and the ProphetX exchange is firmer still at Michigan -194 (66 percent) against Iowa +186 (35 percent). That is a wide gap between a model dead even and a market pricing Michigan as a clear favorite.
The unit ranks explain the low total of 38.5. Both defenses grade elite, Iowa 9th and Michigan 11th, while the offenses lag at 37th and 41st. Results reinforce it: Iowa has posted two shutouts (40-0, 55-0) plus a 16-13 win over Iowa State, and Michigan ground out 13-12 and 17-10 wins before a 52-17 run past UTEP. Two stingy defenses under a sub-40 total fits the profile.
Series history favors Michigan at 1-4, including a 26-0 shutout in the 2023 meeting, and season outlooks stay close: Iowa projects 8.3 wins and 26.3 percent Playoff odds, Michigan 7.6 wins and 15.6 percent. The read is straightforward: the even model line makes Iowa +186 the priced-off side against a market anchoring Michigan near 66 percent.
The model splits this 50/50 while the market prices Michigan near 63%, leaving Iowa the value side on the ratings.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Iowa's win price; Michigan's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Iowa is favored, below it Michigan is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Iowa vs Michigan game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Iowa vs Michigan market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Iowa and Michigan play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Michigan.
Who is favored?
The model projects Michigan by 0.2 (50% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Michigan lead 4-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →