Indiana vs Michigan
Indiana visit Michigan in Week 8. The model favors Indiana by 10.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ and the market point the same way, with daylight between them on degree. The model rates Indiana 23.6 (fifth) against Michigan 13 (23rd) and projects Indiana by 8.2 for a 69% win probability. The consensus line sits at Michigan +7 with a 41.5 total, implying Indiana at 66%, while the ProphetX exchange prices Indiana at -265, an implied 73%. Direction is settled; the only question is whether the fair number is closer to the model's 69% or the exchange's 73%.
The unit splits favor Indiana everywhere but one line. Indiana's offense ranks 12th and Michigan's 75th, while both defenses rank second. Results back the gap: Indiana is 6-1 with shutouts of Howard and Western Kentucky, road wins at Rutgers 47-15 and Nebraska 20-17, and a lone 15-19 loss to Ohio State. Michigan is 4-2, with narrow wins over Western Michigan 13-12 and Oklahoma 17-10 alongside losses to Iowa and Minnesota.
Series history is the lone point for Michigan, which leads 2-9 all time, though Indiana took the 2024 meeting 20-15. The season frames diverge sharply: Indiana projects 9.7 wins with a 65.3% Playoff chance and 7.4% title equity against 7% in the market, while Michigan projects 7 wins, 7.8% to reach the Playoff and 0.6% to win it.
Model and exchange both favor Indiana near 70%, and the unit edges plus a 6-1 resume back the price against a 4-2 Michigan.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Indiana's win price; Michigan's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Indiana is favored, below it Michigan is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Indiana vs Michigan game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Indiana vs Michigan market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Indiana and Michigan play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Michigan.
Who is favored?
The model projects Indiana by 10.3 (73% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Michigan lead 9-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →