Michigan vs Minnesota
Michigan visit Minnesota in Week 5. The model favors Michigan by 5.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market are effectively stacked here. SP+ rates Michigan 14.3 (22nd) against Minnesota 6.5 (52nd) and projects Michigan by 5.4, landing right on the consensus Minnesota +5.5. Both the model and the market-implied line read Michigan 63 percent, Minnesota 37 percent, so there is no disagreement on the number. The ProphetX exchange is the lone outlier, pricing Michigan at -205 (67 percent) and Minnesota at +194 (34 percent), a few points richer on the favorite than either baseline supports.
The ratings gap is built on defense. Michigan's unit ranks 9th on defense against a 52nd offense, while Minnesota pairs a 34th defense with a 62nd offense, tilting the projected total to 43.3. The series adds a narrow Michigan edge: 2-0, decided 27-24 in the 2024 meeting.
Results temper the ratings. Michigan survived Western Michigan 13-12 and beat Oklahoma 17-10 but lost to Iowa 19-20. Minnesota was blown out by Mississippi State 13-38 yet won at Washington 27-24. Season simulations give Michigan 7 projected wins and a 10 percent Playoff chance against Minnesota's 6.4 wins and 2.1 percent.
Model, consensus line, and exchange all lean Michigan, with the only gap a few points of exchange juice on the favorite.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Michigan vs Minnesota game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Michigan vs Minnesota market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Michigan and Minnesota play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Minnesota.
Who is favored?
The model projects Michigan by 5.2 (62% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Michigan lead 5-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →