Michigan vs Rutgers
Michigan visit Rutgers in Week 9. The model favors Michigan by 14. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Michigan 11.5 (27th) against Rutgers at -4.9 (96th), a gap that projects Michigan by 14 and prices the Wolverines at 80 percent to win. The consensus market agrees precisely: Rutgers +14, total 46.5, and an identical 20/80 implied split. The ProphetX exchange leans slightly harder, offering Michigan -520 (84 percent) and Rutgers +485 (17 percent). There is no disagreement to fade here, only a question of degree.
The unit ranks explain the one-sidedness. Michigan pairs the 3rd defense with the 86th offense, a profile that fits a results line built on low scoring: 13-12, 17-10, 21-18. Rutgers offsets a 54th offense with the 124th defense, and has conceded 37, 42, 47, and 42 in its four heaviest losses. Against a top-three defense, that total of 46.5 reads as justified.
Series history adds weight: Michigan leads 9-1 and took the last meeting 31-7 in 2023. The season outlooks diverge sharply, with Michigan projected for 6.5 wins and Rutgers 3.5. The numbers converge on a clear favorite, leaving only whether Michigan's modest offense can cover two touchdowns.
Model, market, and exchange all read Michigan at 80 to 84 percent here, and the ratings gap backs them.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Michigan's win price; Rutgers's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Michigan is favored, below it Rutgers is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Michigan vs Rutgers game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Michigan vs Rutgers market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Michigan and Rutgers play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Rutgers.
Who is favored?
The model projects Michigan by 14 (80% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Michigan lead 9-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →